Just like the one last week, yesterday’s 5% gain in crude oil prices hasn’t lasted long at all. Brent and WTI are both down about 2.50-3.00% this morning once again. The small decrease in US oil production announced yesterday was offset by news of an increase in Russian increase today. This reminds traders that there is lots of oil out there because demand is soft and underscores the reason that this market share war could go on for a long time to come. Simply, with everyone worried that if they cut production someone else could step in and grab their share of the market, nobody wants to be the first to cut. The high intraday volatility in crude oil while it remains in a longer term trading range continue to present opportunities for both sides. Iran nuclear negotiations also could drive action through the day. Progress could lead to a reduction of sanctions and drive the price down while oil could rebound on setbacks. Stocks and currencies have been mixed overnight. AUD has been pounded again as Iron Ore dove to a new 52-week low, while NZD held steady against USD as New Zealand commodity prices rose. EUR and CHF are the top performing major currencies while gold is consolidating above $1,200. Today’s trading may be dominated with positioning ahead of the Easter Weekend, particularly with US nonfarm payrolls coming out tomorrow while stock exchanges are closed for Good Friday. Recent US data has been pointing toward a softer March, particularly yesterday’s big ADP payrolls miss. One exception to this, however, has been US jobless claims which have been under 300K all month, steadily falling, and this week dropped to lowest level in two months. Based on this, I’m thinking another big beat looks unlikely but the ADP may be abnormally low as well. The street is at 245K but I’m thinking 210K near the low end of the 200-250 sweet spot for the economy. Corporate News There have been no major corporate announcements this morning. Economic News Economic reports released overnight and this morning include: Australia inflation 1.5% vs previous 1.3% New Zealand commodity prices 4.6% vs previous 1.8% Australia trade balance ($1.25B) vs street ($1.3B) India manufacturing PMI 52.1 vs previous 51.2 UK construction PMI 57.8 vs street 59.8 Italy deficit to GDP 3.0% vs previous 3.7% US jobless claims 268K vs street 287K US trade balance ($35.4B) vs street ($41.2B) Canada trade balance ($0.9B) vs street ($2.0B) Economic reports due later today include: 10:00 am EDT US factory orders street (0.4%) 10:30 am EDT US natural gas storage street (12 BCF) 1:00 pm EDT US Baker Hughes drill rig count previous 1,048 8:30 am EDT Fri US nonfarm payrolls street 245K vs previous 295K 8:30 am EDT Fri US private payrolls street 238K vs previous 288K 8:30 am EDT Fri US unemployment rate street 5.5% 8:30 am EDT Fri US average hourly earnings street 2.0% 8:30 am EDT Fri US participation rate street 62.8%