he Dow, S&P and NASDAQ all hit new highs yesterday sending positive momentum into Asia Pacific trading overnight. The Nikkei gained 1.1% on its return from a holiday while the Hang Seng rose 0.8% and Shenzen jumped 3.1% despite soft China retail sales and industrial production. The FTSE and Dax
are flat following weak UK construction data and mixed European GDP reports.
US index futures are holding on to yesterday's gains with traders awaiting today's US retail sales report and looking for confirmation of strong consumer spending seen in retailer earnings. Macy's soared 17% yesterday while Nordstrom beat the street by a wide margin after the close and could be in the spotlight today. Strength on the consumer side could add to the case for a more hawkish Fed. Yesterday SF Fed President Williams indicated he is still looking for one rate hike this year (my guess is December after the election).
Crude oil and related markets like CAD, NOK and energy stocls are also in focus again today. WTI has paused following a bib pop yesterday on signs from Saudi Arabia that there could be side discussions about stabilizing the market between OPEC and non-OPEC producers at an energy conference next month in Algeria.
Today's Baker Hughes rig count may also influence trading. Much has been made lately about an uptick from about 400 to 460 but traders should recognize activity usually bounces back in the summer as spring breakup ends, and road bans on heavy equipment movement are lifted. At this time a year ago there were about 880 rigs active so exploration activity remains really slow.
Nordstrom $0.67 vs street $0.56
Nvidia $0.40 vs street $0.37
China industrial production 6.0% vs street 6.2%
China retail sales 10.2% vs street 10.5%
China fixed assets 8.1% vs street 8.9%
China M2 money supply 10.2% vs street 11.0%
China foreign investment (1.6%) vs street 5.5%
UK construction output (2.2%) vs street (2.1%)
Germany Q2 GDP 1.8% vs street 1.4% vs previous 1.6%
Poland Q2 GDP 3.1% vs street 3.3%
Italy Q2 GDP 0.7% vs street 0.8%
Greece Q2 GDP (0.1%) vs street (1.8%), previous revised up to (0.8%) from (1.3%)
Greece Q2 GDP/quarter 0.3% vs street (0.2%)
Eurozone Q2 GDP 1.6% as expected
Eurozone industrial production 0.4% vs street 0.7%
Germany consumer prices 0.4% as expected
Spain consumer prices (0.6%) as expected
NZ Business PMI 55.8 vs previous 57.7
NZ Q2 retail sales 2.3% vs street 1.0% vs previous 0.8%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
8:30 am EDT US retail sales street 0.4% vs previous 0.6%
8:30 am EDT US retail ex auto street 0.3%
8:30 am EDT US producer prices street 0.2%
8:30 am EDT US core PPI street 1.2%
8:30 am EDT Canada Teranet house prices previous 10 0%
10:00 am EDT US consumer sentiment street 91.5
1:00 pm EDT US Baker Hughes drill rigs previous 464
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