Equity traders have been reluctant to make big commitments ahead of today's developments, but aren't shaking in their boots either. US index futures, the FTSE and the Dax
are all slightly in positive territory today.
The huge moves across global markets in late 2016 radiated outward from big rallies in US stocks and the US Dollar as traders positioned themselves and picked potential winners and losers in a Trump administration. By the start of this year traders had priced Trump to perfection increasing the risk of disappointment or negative surprises.
With the new Congress sitting and Cabinet confirmation hearings underway, traders are starting to turn from hope and speculation to looking at what is actually happening or not happening. Today's Trump press conference is another big step in the transition with markets looking for more clarity on which promises and policies are top priority as the January 20th inauguration approaches.
Ahead of the press conference, which is at 11:00 am EST, the US Dollar is trading higher against EUR, GBP and JPY. Gold and copper are both up about 0.5% extending this week's gains. Higher metal and energy prices are keeping support behind resource currencies like CAD and AUD.
Crude oil has been trying to rebound from two days of heavy losses with WTI holding $50.00 and gaining 0.7%. Iraq exports, OPEC cuts and US production remain in focus. API inventories rose 1.3 mbbls last week. Crude could be active through today's DOE weekly inventories at 1030 am EST with a 2.0 mmbbl increase widely anticipated.
There have been no major corporate announcements this morning.
UK trade balance (£4.1B) vs street (£3.5B)
UK industrial production 2.0% vs street 0.7% vs previous (1.1%)
UK manufacturing production 1.2% vs street 0.4% vs previous (0.4%)
UK construction output 1.5% vs street 2.0%
Greece consumer prices 0.0% vs previous (0.9%)
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
10:30 am EST US DOE crude oil inventories street 2.00 mmbbls
10:30 am EST US DOE gasoline inventories street 2.5 mmbbls
10:30 am EST US DOE distillate inventories street 3.0 mmbbls
11:00 am EST US President Elect Trump press conference
1:20 pm EST FOMC Dudley speaking
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