tock markets in the US tried to continue their recent trend of one day up and one day down but faded into the close while European indices
finished in the red unable to hold on to early gains. Since last week’s ECB meeting left the door open for the Fed to raise interest rates, there’s been a lot of uncertainty over what the Fed and the Bank of Japan may do. Because of this, and the importance of this month’s central bank meetings, neither bulls nor bears have been able to dominate for very long.
Crude oil has been active again today swinging in both directions on DOE inventory reports. WTI rallied first after oil inventories declined slightly, which was a lot better than the 4.0 mmbbl rebound the street had been expecting. After running into resistance at $45.00, however, oil turned south again with WTI falling 2.2% back under $44.00. It appears that a surprise increase in gasoline stockpiles and a bigger than expected rise in distillates inventories may have sparked some selling pressure.
Today brings two more central bank meetings, in Switzerland and in UK. No changes are expected which would keep both central banks in neutral with traders already thinking the Bank of England may have overdone it on stimulus last month. Any surprises could have a significant impact on trading, particularly in forex markets.
Another reason for the choppiness this week is that there haven’t been very many economic reports. That changes in spades today with big data reports on the way for several countries. New Zealand starts things off with PMI and GDP reports that may give a better idea of whether recent RBNZ rate cuts have been helping or not. Australia employment figures are also due today with the street expecting job growth to moderate a bit.
Tomorrow morning brings retail sales reports for the UK and US and then a flurry of mid-level and regional US reports including industrial production. Red hot UK sales are expected to slow a bit while the US reports may give a better idea of how much pressure the Fed is under to raise interest rates next week.
There have been no major corporate announcements after the US close today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US DOE crude oil inventories (0.5 mmbbls) vs street 4.0 mmbbls & previous (14.5 mmbbls)
US DOE gasoline inventories 0.5 mmbbls vs street (1.1 mmbbls) & previous (4.2 mmbbls)
US DOE distillate inventories 4.6 mmbbls vs street 1.5 mmbbls & previous 3.3 mmbbls
Canada Teranet house prices 11.4% vs previous 10.9%
UK jobless claims 2.4K vs street 1.8K vs previous (8K)
UK 3M employment change 174K vs street 171K
UK unemployment rate 4.9% unchanged as expected
UK average weekly earnings 2.3% vs street 2.1%
UK average weekly earnings previous revised up to 2.5% from 2.4%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
8:30 am AEST NZ BusinessNZ manufacturing PMI previous 55.8
8:45 am AEST NZ GDP street 3.6% vs previous 2.8%
11:30 am AEST Australia employment change street 15K vs previous 26K
11:30 am AEST Australia full-time jobs previous (45K)
11:30 am AEST Australia part-time jobs previous 71K
11:30 am AEST Australia unemployment rate street 5.7%
3:00 pm AEST Singapore retail sales street 1.4% vs previous 0.9%
8:30 am BST Swiss National Bank meeting no changes to deposit or lending
9:30 am BST UK retail sales street 5.4% vs previous 5.9%
9:30 am BST UK retail ex auto street 4.8% vs previous 5.4%
10:00 am BST Eurozone trade balance street €22.0B
10:00 am BST Eurozone consumer prices street 0.2%
10:00 am BST Eurozone core CPI street 0.8%
12:00 pm BST Bank of England meeting no changes to 0.25% interest rate or £435B asset purchase target
8:30 am EDT US retail sales street (0.1%)
8:30 am EDT US retail ex auto street 0.2%
8:30 am EDT US jobless claims street 265K
8:30 am EDT US Empire manufacturing street (1.0) vs previous (4.0)
8:30 am EDT US Philadelphia Fed street 1.0
8:30 am EDT US producer prices street 0.1%
8:30 am EDT US core PPI street 1.0% vs previous 0.7%
9:15 am EDT US industrial production street (0.2%)
9:15 am EDT US manufacturing production street (0.3%)
10:30 am EDT US natural gas storage street 55 BCF
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