Overnight news has been relatively quiet. Japanese PM Abe dampened stimulus speculation confirming tax increases remain on track.
Crude oil is falling back again toward the bottom of yesterday's range as it continues to retrench. (he big advance of the last month appears to be fading with the big producers meeting priced in and still several weeks out, while US inventories continue to rise. Performance in oil sensitive currencies is mixed today with RUB and NOK weakening while CAD strengthens ahead of Canada producer price reports.
Although this week is off to a quiet start, things could change dramatically with a number of potential big announcements on the way.
In the US, focus remains on whether or not the Fed could raise interest rates in April or June. The FOMC statement and projections had sent a dovish signal but last week several Fed speakers backtracked. The street may look to comments from Fed Chair Yellen to set the record straight. At her press conference she indicated April as a live meeting for a potential rate hike although nobody believed her at the time.
Speeches later this week from NY Fed president Dudley and Cleveland Fed President Mester, representing the dovish and hawkish factions of the FOMC may also attract attention. ADP and nonfarm payrolls may also indicate whether how much pressure the central bank is under to make a move in April or if a June hike remains more likely
Trading on Fed speculation may be a main driver of action through the week with more speakers scheduled plus key data announcements on the way including ADP and Nonfarm payrolls plus Chicago and Manufacturing PMI. Strong results from Lennar could attract attention to US homebuilders today.
Lennar $0.63 vs street $0.52
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Upcoming significant announcements include:
8:30 am EDT Canada industrial prices street (0.2%)
8:30 am EDT Canada raw material prices street (0.9%)
10:00 am EDT US consumer confidence street 94.0
12:20 pm EDT FOMC Yellen speaking
1:00 pm EDT FOMC Kaplan speaking
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