We round up the last full week of trading in 2013
with another fairly full day of data after this week's market moving decision by the Fed to pare back on its monetary stimulus program.
Will this week's move prove to be a game changer, and a turning point on the road to recovery or another false dawn, only time will tell?
Yesterday we had the unusual sight of US markets moving lower on the back of bad data
after weekly jobless claims, new home sales and Philadelphia Fed Business surveys all fell short of market expectation, which was a quite a change to the behaviour we have become used to.
While the drop proved to be only temporary in nature it could well mark the beginning of an element of two-way pricing when it comes to data releases, and that would certainly make a change.
Though we saw US markets finish mixed last night
the move higher in Europe could well continue today with the likely prospect we could see the FTSE
100 finish the week higher for the first time in seven weeks.
Most of the economic data out today is unlikely to move markets that much simply because it will be a reaffirmation of what we know already.
We start with the final iteration of UK Q3 GDP
which is expected to remain unchanged at 0.8%
, though there is a possibility we might see an upward revision to the business investment number which has been disappointing, and for the current recovery in the UK to be considered sustainable this is one area where we do need to see a vast improvement in Q4 and into 2014.
Despite the improvement in the UK economy the latest Gfk consumer confidence number
continues to remain quite flaky having been stuck in or around the -10 area for the last three months, as consumers wrestle with shrinking incomes relative to inflation, but an improving economy. The slight deterioration to -13 in December from -11 speaks to that.
We also have the latest November public finances data
which is expected to show a big increase from the £6.4bn in October to £13.4bn
, while the current account deficit is expected to widen to -£14bn.
In the US
we round up the week with confirmation of a figure that had a large upward revision just over two weeks ago with the final adjustment to US Q3 GDP
which is expected to be confirmed at 3.6%, with personal consumption confirmed at 1.4%.
Back in Europe the Portuguese constitutional court
threw an almighty spanner in the Portuguese government's plans to make 10% cuts to public sector pensions agreed as part of the 2014 budget. The court declared the cuts unconstitutional, meaning that the government will have to find the funds from elsewhere in the form of tax hikes or other cuts.
Given that the court has closed off a number of other avenues for cutting spending
it will become increasingly difficult for the government to fill the €388m it needs and jeopardise its exit from its bailout in 2014.
With 10 year yields already around 6%
further difficulties in meeting its fiscal targets are likely to see Portugal needing another bailout.
- the euro looks as if it could be building up for a push lower given its inability to get above 1.3715 yesterday. While below we could see a test of 1.3620, which if broken could open up a move towards the 1.3480 level. The October highs at 1.3830 remain a key resistance, while behind that we have long term trend line resistance from the all-time highs at 1.6040 which comes in at 1.3910. Only a break below the 1.3480 level would then argue for a move to the lows last month at 1.3300.
- cable looks slightly more resilient despite this week's failure at 1.6483. For now we could slip back towards the 1.6250 area, if we can't get back above 1.6400. A move below 1.6220 could well see 1.6110. This remains the key level for a continued push higher towards the 1.6520 level.
- after this week's precipitous drop from the 0.8470/90 trend line resistance from the 0.8770 highs we could well be heading back towards the lows this month at 0.8252. The failure at these highs should now translate into a further decline towards the 0.8170, but we could well see a return towards 0.8420 first.
- we continue to slowly move higher with yet more five year highs yesterday as we look to head towards the 105.70 level. This remains the key level being the 61.8% retracement of the down move from the 2007 highs at 124.30 to the 75.30 lows. Support comes in at 103.70 initially and then 103.20 Ichimoku cloud support on the 4 hour charts.
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