apan has been the most active market to start the week and this looks likely to continue into today’s Asia Pacific trading. With the G-7 meetings now over, the country’s warnings about a possible economic crisis being ignored and talk of currency wars subdued, the country appears set to ramp up its stimulus efforts. There already has been talk that an upcoming sales tax increase may be postponed to October 2019 from April 2017. Today’s employment, industrial and housing/construction data may give a better indication of how much pressure the government and the Bank of Japan are under to act on increasing stimulus. JPY has already been falling on the news, especially against USD, which has helped Japanese exporters’ stocks to lead a turnaround for the Nikkei.
US and UK markets were closed for holidays today so trading across North America and Europe was relatively quiet with the Dax
up 0.4% and the S&P/TSX steady. Crude oil also shook off some early softness enabling WTI and Brent to post gains of 0.5% and 0.9% respectively to trade just below $50.00 again. Gold, however, remains under pressure between a rising USD and fading crisis fears.
US and UK traders return to work Tuesday to a very busy week for economic news, especially in the US. Following two weeks of increasingly hawkish comments from Fed members pointing toward a rate hike in June or July we’re now heading into the last big data reports before the June 15th decision. The main event is Friday’s nonfarm payrolls (which may be distorted by a strike at Verizon), but Tuesday also brings important announcements. Traders may look to personal spending for confirmation of recent strong retail sales numbers, Core PCE for signs of inflation pressures building and the Chicago PMI + Dallas Fed reports for indications of regional economic strength or weakness. For the UK, Brexit referendum speculation remains the big driver of trading amid reports that PM Cameron’s leadership of the Conservative Party may be challenged regardless of which side wins. CAD may be active as well Tuesday around Canadian monthly and quarterly GDP reports.
There have been no major announcements after the US close today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Canada raw material prices 0.7% vs street 1.1% vs previous 4.5%
Canada industrial prices (0.5%) vs street 0.4 vs previous (0.6%)
Germany consumer prices 0.1% as expected
France GDP 1.4% vs street 1.3%
France consumer spending 2.5% vs street 2.6%
Spain consumer prices (1.0%) as expected
Sweden GDP 4.2% vs street 4.3%
Norway retail sales 0.0% vs street 1.0%
Norway unemployment rate 4.7% vs street 4.6%
Greece GDP (1.3%) vs street (1.2%)
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
9:30 am AEST Japan unemployment rate street 3.2%
9:30 am AEST Japan industrial production street (5.0%)
3:00 pm AEST Japan housing starts street 4.1%
3:00 pm AEST Japan construction orders previous 19.8%
7:45 am BST France consumer prices street (0.1%)
8:55 am BST Germany unemployment change street (5K)
8:55 am BST Germany unemployment rate street 6.2%
9:00 am BST Italy unemployment rate street 11.4%
11:00 am BST Italy GDP street 1.0%
10:00 am BST Eurozone unemployment rate street 10.2%
10:00 am BST Eurozone consumer prices street (0.1%)
10:00 am BST Eurozone core CPI street 0.8%
8:30 am EDT Canada Mar GDP street 1.4% vs previous 1.5%
8:30 am EDT Canada Q1 GDP street 2.8% vs previous 0.8%
8:30 am EDT US personal income street 0.4%
8:30 am EDT US personal spending street 0.7%
8:30 am EDT US core PCE inflation street 1.6%
9:45 am EDT US Chicago PMI street 50,5
10:00 am EDT US consumer confidence street 96.3
10:30 am EDT US Dallas Fed street (8.0) vs previous (13.9)
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