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Gold rallies as USD hits the wall; Canada retail sales and CPI preview

CMC Markets

The correction that started late yesterday in USD after the Fed minutes came out and the US Dollar index hit a wall of resistance at the 100.00 level has accelerated through today’s North American trading session. For over a year USD has been advancing on anticipation that the Fed would start raising interest rates this year and continue to raise rates afterward as it did in previous cycles. While it’s looking increasingly likely that rate liftoff will come at the December meeting, it’s looking more and more clear that follow on increases will be at a much more gradual pace and with a lower eventual peak rate than the street had priced into the currency. The realization that the Fed could be less hawkish over the longer term than currently expected has sparked a big downward reversal in USD enabling other currencies to rebound. Gold has been leading the recovery charge while resource currencies like NZD, AUD and NOK have capitalized on this in a big way. JPY and GBP have been trailing their peers but are still up strongly against the greenback. CAD has also been in the lower half of the standings but has the potential for significant trading action through the rest of the week. Canada retail sales and consumer prices are due tomorrow. These reports are among the last major data points before the next Bank of Canada interest rate decision on December 2nd, which comes after GDP but before the next employment report. Traders may look to these figures for signs of whether the Bank is under pressure to cut interest rates for a third time this year or if the rebalancing in Canada’s economy is far enough along for them to stay on hold. Corporate News There have been no major announcements after the US close today. Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: South Africa interest rate surprise 0.25% increase to 6.25% US jobless claims 271K vs street 270K US Philadelphia Fed 1.9 vs street (0.3) US Bloomberg consumer comfort 41.2 vs previous 41.6 US Bloomberg economic expectations 42.5 vs previous 42.0 US leading index 0.6% vs street 0.5% US natural gas 15 BCF vs street 19 BCF Canada wholesale sales (0.1%) vs street 0.2% Switzerland watch exports (12.3% overall), Hong Kong (38.5%), Mainland China (5.1%) US (12.2%), Germany (4.7%) Sweden unemployment rate 6.7% as expected UK retail sales 3.8% vs street 4.5% vs previous 6.5% UK CBI total orders (11) vs street (10) vs previous (18) Upcoming significant economic announcements include: (Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore) 1:00 pm AEDT China leading index 7:00 am GMT Germany producer prices street (2.0%) 8:00 am GMT ECB Draghi speaking 8:30 am EST Canada retail sales street 0.1% 8:30 am EST Canada retail ex auto street (0.4%) 8:30 am EST Canada consumer prices street 1.0% 8:30 am EST Canada core CPI street 2.0% 9:00 am EST FOMC Bullard speaking 11:15 am EST FOMC Dudley speaking 12:00 pm EST Sat FOMC Williams speaking


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