Stocks, commodities and currencies have been very active overnight as the shockwaves from yesterday’s FOMC decision and projections blasted through world markets. The news had something for both bulls and bears to chew on and has jolted traders out of complacency. On the bearish side, the dropping of the word patient opens the door for the Fed to take action at any meeting from June onward. On the other hand, the lowering of GDP, fed funds and inflation projections means the Fed may delay rate liftoff to later in the year and not start in June as had been expected, helping the bullish side. Heading into the meeting, expectations were running high that the Fed would set the stage for a June interest rate increase, USD had been soaring for months and had staged another rally in early March, while US stocks had levelled off and were trailing their overseas peers. The lowered outlook for the US came as a surprise to many although really the market was getting ripe for a correction anyway even if the central bank had stayed on course for June. Initially, USD was crushed on the news lifting a big overhang from other paper currencies, gold, commodities particularly oil, and US stocks. Overnight this initial burst of short covering and scramble to get back on side has subsided a bit. USD has rebounded against most paper majors, oil has turned south again and stocks have been giving back some of their initial gains with the Dow still trading below 18,000. Gold, however, has held on to much of its gains, suggesting other factors may be at play, most likely related to Europe. In particular, political risk has been growing ahead of talks over Greece at the upcoming EU summit which has seen Greek treasury yields rise above 11% on concerns the country could be forced out of the Eurozone to deal with its humanitarian and financial crises. Meanwhile, the surprises keep on coming. Norway’s Norges Bank decided not to cut rates this morning as had been widely expected by the street. It did, however, leave the door open to a 0.25% cut at some time over the next year if needed. This news sparked a major rebound in NOK even though crude oil has fallen back down today. CAD, meanwhile, has been steady even though the Norges Bank decision suggests that the Bank of Canada may not cut rates at its next meeting either and could instead decide to save its ammunition for a later time if needed. Switzerland’s decision was pretty much in line with expectations. The Swiss National Bank held interest rates but cut its GDP and inflation projections. It also tried to talk down the franc, calling CHF significantly overvalued and threatening to intervene in FX markets if necessary (although clearly not to the same extent as before since it couldn’t keep the EUR peg going. The main lesson from all of this news is another clear reminder that although traders may speculate on what central banks may do, central bankers do NOT take their marching orders from the markets. Because of this traders need to avoid getting to complacent about monetary policy trends which can change at any time. Corporate News Potash Corp Saskatchewan resource tax changes to cut pre-tax earnings this year by $75-$100 million. Lennar $0.50 vs street $0.45 Economic News Economic reports released overnight and this morning include: US interest rate 0.25% no change as expected US FOMC statement drops “patient” language as expected US FOMC 2015 GDP forecast cut to 2.3-2.7% from 2.6-3,.0% US FOMC 2015 core PCE infln cut to 1.3-1.4% from 1.5-1.8% US FOMC end 2015 fed funds average forecast cut to 0.625% from 1.125% Norway interest rate surprise 1.25% unchanged, a 0.25% cut to 1.00% had been widely expected Norway Q12016 rate projection lowered to 0.95% from 1.13% Switzerland interest rate (0.25%) no change as expected Switzerland deposit rate (0.75%) no change as expected Switzerland SNB GDP forecast cut to 1.00% from 2.00% Switzerland SNB CPI forecast lowered to (1.1% from (0.1% US jobless claims 291K vs street 293K NZ Q4 GDP 3.5% vs street 3.4% Economic reports due later today include: 10:00 am EDT US Philadelphia Fed street 7.0 10:00 am EDT US leading index street 0.2% 10:30 am EDT US natural gas street (51 BCF)