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Focus on Australia as US markets rebound with China closed for holidays

CMC Markets

Stock markets in Europe and North America had a positive day on Wednesday. Although on balance, indices did not recover all of Tuesday’s losses, many indices established higher lows. This suggests that although markets may remain choppy through October and retests of the August lows remain possible, overall, the worst of the summer stock market storm appears to be behind us. The fading of China contagion was also seen very clearly in gold and oil trading today. Despite an increase in DOE inventories, and a smaller than expected drawdown in gasoline stockpiles, energy commodities bounced back today. Meanwhile, gold, along with JPY retreated as capital flowed back out of defensive havens and back into risk markets. USD advanced along with US indices on mixed US economic news. ADP payrolls were a bit below expectations but not enough to change Fed expectations, while the Beige Book indicated 11 out of 12 districts were growing at a modest or moderate pace. Kansas City lagging can be blamed on the impact of the oil crash on Oklahoma, Colorado and Wyoming. Overall, today’s trading suggests traders think the Fed remains on track to start raising interest rates soon Chinese markets are now closed for holidays for the rest of the week, which gives other markets to step into the spotlight. Today’s Asia Pacific trading may focus on Australia where a triple header of trade, retail sales and service PMI may give an ideal of how much pressure the RBA could be under to cut rates again or if the lower dollar is helping the economy. In Europe the ECB meeting may attract a lot of attention with traders looking to see if the ECB plans to ramp QE purchases back up after slowing over the summer and if it is considering any more stimulus. The Riksbank also meets, so EUR and SEK could be active on central bank action, inaction or chatter. It’s a light day for news in North America tomorrow, but traders may continue to position ahead of Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls and Canadian employment reports. Corporate News There have been no major corporate announcements after the US close today. Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: Singapore PMI 49.3 vs street 49.4 Singapore electronics sector 49.0 as expected US ADP payrolls 190K vs street 200K and previous 185K US factory orders 0.4% vs street 0.9% US DOE crude oil inventories 4.4 mmbbls vs street 0.9 mmbbls US API crude oil inventories 7.6 mmbbls vs street (0.8 mmbbls) US DOE Gasoline inventories (0.2 mmbbls) vs street (2.0 mmbbls) Poland interest rate decision 1.50% no change as expected Spain unemployment change 21K vs street 35K and previous (74K) UK construction PMI 57.3 vs street 57.5 Upcoming significant announcements include: 11:30 am AEST Australia trade balance street ($3.1B) 11:30 am AEST Australia retail sales street 0.4% 8:30 am BST Sweden interest rate street (0.35%) 10:00 am BST Eurozone retail sales street 2 0% vs previous 1.2% 12:45 pm BST ECB interest rate and QE no changes expected 1:30 pm BST ECB Draghi press conference 8:30 am EDT US jobless claims street 275K 8:30 am EDT US trade balance street ($42.2B) 8:30 am EDT Canada trade balance street ($1.2B) 10:30 am EDT US natural gas street 90 BCF Service PMI Reports: 9:30 am AEST Australia previous 54.1 11:35 am AEST Japan previous 51.2 12:15 pm AEST Singapore Nikkei previous 51.3 3:00 pm AEST India previous 50.8 7:30 am BST Sweden street 56.5 8:15 am BST Spain street 59.3 8:45 am BST Italy street 52.5 8:50 am BST France street 51.8 8:55 am BST Germany street 53.6 9:30 am BST UK street 57.7 9:45 am EDT US Markit street 55.0 10:00 am EDT US ISM street 58.2 CMC Markets is an execution only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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