69 procent av alla icke-professionella kunder förlorar pengar på CFD-handel hos den här leverantören. Du bör tänka efter om du har råd med den stora risk som finns för att du kommer att förlora dina pengar.

Nyheter

The Fed’s Janet Yellen: Santa or the Grinch for the markets this December?

The Fed’s Janet Yellen: Santa or the Grinch for the markets this December?

Ahead of one of the most optimistic months for stock markets – commonly known as the Santa Claus Rally in December – Colin Cieszynski analyses how markets have previously responded around this time of year, and looks at the possible consequences of a rate rise by Janet Yellen and the Fed. Within the report Colin discusses: • A look back at previous Santa Claus Rallies and returns for the Dow • 2015’s autumn market performance so far • How markets will respond to Janet Yellen’s impending decisions on monetary policy and interest rates It may seem counterintuitive, but if Fed Chair Janet Yellen wants to act like Santa for stocks, she will need to be the Grinch on monetary policy and raise rates as the Fed has been signalling. A decision to be Santa on interest rates could turn her into a Grinch for stocks. The Fed has recently given indication that it is poised to (potentially) raise interest rates for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009. For the last several years, stocks have applauded dovish stimulus moves from the Fed, so some traders may wonder if a more hawkish central bank could derail the typical end of year optimism. In fact, a look at returns for the Dow over the last decade suggests that the opposite to be true. Looking at years where the Fed made a move at its December meeting against the 10-year average, a hawkish decision resulted in stocks performing better (up more or down less) than in years the Fed made a dovish December move. This outperformance applies for each month between October and February, indicating that hawkish Fed anticipation and follow-through does nothing to dampen traders’ spirits around the holidays. It also suggests that a dovish surprise in December (like another hold decision), could have a negative impact on trading. Why would this happen? It’s important to remember that dovish stimulus moves are done to prop up a weak economy, whilst a hawkish move is only undertaken when the economy is strong enough to support. New York Fed President Dudley recently confirmed this, indicating a hawkish move by the Fed would be a show of confidence in the economy. Therefore, a decision to raise interest rates could in fact boost optimism about economic and earnings prospects for 2016. A look at the table below compares this year’s autumn market performance so far with recent years and averages. The strong performance through October and much of November (except a one-week trading correction) means that this year has been very similar to the fall of 2013. In 2013, the Fed delayed QE tapering from September to December, just as it looked like a rate liftoff had been delayed from September to December. Interestingly, in years when the Fed went dovish in December, markets tanked through October and November, even when 2008 is taken out of the equation. This confirms the notion that dovish moves are usually a function of a weak business environment. Recent trading, then, indicates that traders are increasingly expecting the Fed to raise interest rates at its December meeting. CMC Markets is an execution only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.


CMC Markets erbjuder sin tjänst som ”execution only”. Detta material (antingen uttryckt eller inte) är endast för allmän information och tar inte hänsyn till dina personliga omständigheter eller mål. Ingenting i detta material är (eller bör anses vara) finansiella, investeringar eller andra råd som beroende bör läggas på. Inget yttrande i materialet utgör en rekommendation från CMC Markets eller författaren om en viss investering, säkerhet, transaktion eller investeringsstrategi. Detta innehåll har inte skapats i enlighet med de regler som finns för oberoende investeringsrådgivning. Även om vi inte uttryckligen hindras från att handla innan vi har tillhandhållit detta innehåll försöker vi inte dra nytta av det innan det sprids.

Standardiserad riskvarning: CFD-kontrakt är komplexa instrument som innebär stor risk för snabba förluster på grund av hävstången. 69 procent av alla icke-professionella kunder förlorar pengar på CFD-handel hos den här leverantören. Du bör tänka efter om du förstår hur CFD-kontrakt fungerar och om du har råd med den stora risk som finns för att du kommer att förlora dina pengar.