This morning finds European indices climbing again with political fears over fighting in Syria subsiding for now (although they could flare up again any time) combined with a positive reaction to weaker continental currencies particularly EUR, SEK and PLN. USD has been on the rebound this morning knocking gold back. Overnight SGD was particulary strong on the back of a positive Singapore GDP report.
US indices are trading up slightly in what is essentially a half day for US markets with many traders heading home for the Thanksgiving holiday after noon EST. Between now and then, however, it could be really busy with three days of economic reports being crammed into one morning. Before the exchanges open the main reports are US durable goods, plus Core PCE inflation which is a measure the Fed likes to use. These reports along with jobless claims could influence Fed speculation trading but only if there was a major surprise.
Later in the morning, the focus turns to energy with the release of the weekly inventory reports. After rallying for two days, WTI has been dropping back overnight after another big build in API inventories reminded the street that the US is still awash in crude (with more apparently on the way at sea) and that Middle East supply disruptions probably wouldn’t have a big impact in the short term. Also, the glut reminds traders that the Saudis have been all talk and no action on cooperation and that concrete moves will be needed to truly stabilize the market For now, $40.00 still appears to be the threshold of pain being defended by suppliers.
Corporate News
HP Inc. $0.93 vs guidance $0.92-$0.98, sales $25.7B below street $26.3B, guides next Q to $0.33-$0.38 below street $0.42
Deere & Co sales $5.9B below street $6.1B, guides next Q sales to fall 11% from previous year, next fiscal sales to fall 7% over this year
Economic News
Significant announcements released overnight include:
API US crude oil inventories 2.6 mmbbls vs street 0.6 mmbbls
Singapore GDP 1.9% vs street 1.4%
Japan leading index previous 101.4
Australia Q3 construction work (3.3%) vs street (2.2%)
Argentina to lift currency controls
Norway unemployment rate 4.6% as expected
Poland unemployment rate 9.6% as expected
Italy retail sales 1.5% vs street 1.4%
Upcoming significant announcements include:
8:30 am EST US durable goods orders street 1.7%
8:30 am EST US durables ex transport street 0.3%
8:30 am EST US personal income street 0.4%
8:30 am EST US personal spending street 0.3%
8:30 am EST US core PCE inflation street 1.4%
8:30 am EST US jobless claims street 270K
8:30 am EST US continuing claims street 2,161K
9:00 am EST US FHFA house prices street 0.4%
9:45 am EST US Markit flash service PMI street 55.1 vs previous 54.8
10:00 am EST US new home sales street 500K
10:00 am EST US U Michigan sentiment street 93.1
10:30 am EST US DOE crude oil inventories street 1.0 mmbbls
10:30 am EST US DOE gasoline inventories street 0.95 mmbbls
10:30 am EST US DOE oil implied demand previous 16,114 mmbbls
12:00 pm EST US natural gas street 6 BCF
1:00 pm EST US Baker Hughes drill rigs previous 757
10:00 am EST Canada report on Toronto housing market
CMC Markets
Dela