US markets hit stall speed last night despite making fresh all-time highs as investors started to pare back gains ahead of the shortened Thanksgiving holiday week
, while the sharp 2% fall in Brent oil prices that initially sparked yesterday’s rally in Europe’s markets, went pretty much into full reverse as the day went on.
While one could well argue that last weekend’s deal has ratcheted down the prospect of a flare up in tensions in the region in the short term the fact that the deal doesn’t alter the supply versus demand dynamics appears to have pretty much negated any apparent positives arising from the deal. Given this turnaround can we expect to see yesterday’s gains in the airline sector to prove short-lived
if Brent prices don’t start to slide back again.
Given the sharp about turn in Brent prices and last night’s lacklustre US finish we can expect a slightly more subdued open for Europe’s markets
With no European economic data to speak of the markets attention is likely to turn to central bank speakers today with Asmussen and Mersch of the ECB
set to make some key note speeches in Germany today, no doubt with the sole intention of jawboning the euro lower, while in the UK we have testimony by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney to MP’s on the most recent inflation report
If MP’s are on the ball, and that’s not a given, Mr Carney can expect to field some questions on the timing of any possible rate rise
, particularly in light of the fact that if the current direction of travel is any guide, the unemployment rate could fall below the 7% threshold sooner than the Bank has projected. Any questioning is likely to be especially pertinent given that the most recent monthly figure came in at 7.1%.
We also have the latest US consumer confidence numbers for November
which are expected to show an improvement to 72.2, from the government shutdown induced October slump to 71.2. Given recent warnings by US retailers about the prospects for their earnings in Q4 it would be a surprise to see much of a rebound in the confidence numbers as we head towards Black Friday at the end of this week.
– yesterday’s failure at 1.3560 has caused a pullback towards the previous resistance at 1.3480, which should act as support. Whether we get a move towards 1.3620 will depend on whether we break below the 1.3480 level which would then argue for a move to the lows last week at 1.3400, and then below that 1.3300. Long term trend line from the all-time highs at 1.6040 comes in at 1.3950.
– yesterday’s failure just below channel line resistance at 1.6255 suggests we could well see a test back towards 1.6110. The 1.6250 level remains the first obstacle to a move higher, but the larger one remains at 1.6305 which is trend line resistance from the 2009 highs at 1.7045.
Pivot support remains at 1.6110, a break of which argues for a move back to the multi week support at 1.5880/90. It’s going to take something substantial to break the pound out of its recent range, with the bias remaining to the downside. Only a sustained break below 1.5900 has the potential to target a move towards 1.5750.
– yesterday’s short squeeze has seen the euro move back towards initial resistance at the 0.8370/80 area. Above here suggests a deeper pullback to the 0.8420 level. The main support lies at the recent lows at 0.8305, but the ultimate target remains for a move below the 0.8320 level towards 0.8280, 50% retracement of the entire up move from the 2012 lows and the high this year.
– last week’s break higher beyond the September highs at 100.60, now targets the highs this year at 103.75 which is the next obstacle to a move to 105.00. The July highs at 101.55 could act as short term resistance however.
Any pullbacks could well find support at the 100.60 level, and if we were to break below the 99.20 level we could see a deeper fall towards 98.50.
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