So far this week European markets have declined for four straight days in a row
and last night's lowest close in four weeks in the US
was once again a reminder that concerns about some form of Fed action next week remain never too far away.
As things stand the FTSE100 looks set to post its sixth successive lower weekly close
while the German DAX
also looks set to post its second weekly close in a succession, pointing to the increasing likelihood of further losses if we close below the 9,000 level.
US bond markets appear to be pricing in some probability of possible action
next week as the 10 year yield starts to edge back towards last week's post payroll highs. That said last night's lowest US close in four weeks could well present an opportunity for some bargain hunting and is likely to translate into a little end of week buying and a slightly positive open this morning in Europe.
Yesterday's US data didn't really offer too much in the way of clues
as to what to expect next week, suffice to say as we head towards the last full trading week of the year, investors look much less likely to drive markets to new all-time highs while the current uncertainty remains.
Today's price action is not likely to be driven too much by economic data
with a fairly light calendar, but some UK data
could well drive sentiment with respect to the pound with the latest construction output data for October
which is expected to show a rise of 1.6% in signs that the current UK recovery appears to be fairly broad based.
In the US the latest producer prices for November
could well give some clues to next weeks Fed meeting. In October we saw a decline of 0.2 which did raise some eyebrows with respect to concerns about deflation. A similarly weak number could well push back expectations about a possible taper given the Fed's dual mandate.
Expectations are for a flat reading
on the month while the year on year number is expected to rise from 0.3% to 0.8%.
- could we have seen a short term top in the euro after yesterday's bearish engulfing candle as once again we failed to gain a foothold above the 1.3800 level.
The October highs at 1.3830 remain a key resistance, while behind that we have long term trend line resistance from the all-time highs at 1.6040 which comes in at 1.3935. Any dips seem likely to find support at 1.3620 Only a break below the 1.3480 level would then argue for a move to the lows last week at 1.3400, and then below that 1.3300.
- another negative day yesterday after Wednesday's bearish daily candle which might suggest we could well have seen the top in the short term, but as long as we stay above the 1.6250 level then the uptrend remains intact. Initial support lies at last week's low at 1.6300. Only a move below the 1.6250 level argues for a deeper pullback towards 1.6110.
- this week's break through the 0.8400 level brings with it the risk of a move towards the 0.8470/90 area and trend line resistance from the 0.8770 highs.
For the move towards 0.8170 to play out we need to see a move back below the 0.8370 area, which acted as initial resistance after the recent low at 0.8250.
- having taken out the twin peaks at 103.40 and put in a new high above 103.75 we look set to move in on the 105.70 level which is the 61.8% retracement of the down move from the 2007 highs at 124.30 to the 75.30 lows.
Tuesday's bearish daily candle no longer retains its relevance now that we have traded through 103.40. Potential topping support remains at 101.60 with a move below targeting 99.80.
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