The positive tailwinds for US stocks continued yesterday after US Q3 GDP came in well above expectations of 3.3%, with an upward revision to 3.9%, helped in no small part by an improvement in personal consumption as well as business investment, though why the increase in consumption rates isn't being manifested in retail sales or durable goods data is somewhat of a puzzle.
Despite this improvement stocks are starting to look a little tired in this holiday shortened trading week moving higher at a very gradual pace.
Some of the edge was taken off the GDP numbers by a sharp slide in the latest consumer confidence numbers for November, which slid back to 88.7, when the consensus had been for a move higher to 96, and seems to run counter to the recent trends in lower fuel prices and improving labour markets.
Back in Europe, equity markets look set to take their cues from the fairly positive finish for US markets this morning, with the German DAX back to within touching distance of the 9,900
level yesterday, barely six weeks after the index touched lows of 8,350. Yesterday's German Q3 GDP numbers while coming in as expected at 0.1%, did show an improvement in exports and consumption, though it was also noticeable that capital investment was slightly disappointing.
On that point the OECD signalled out Europe as the main risk to the global economy
, urging a coherent policy response with Germany singled out in particular with respect to its response to the crisis. It also urged the ECB to take monetary policy further and buy government bonds, something unlikely to go down well in Berlin.
All eyes will be on Brussels today as EU Commission President Juncker unveils his dubious €315bn investment plan for Europ
e which in essence is a leveraged package of funds backed by €21bn in loan guarantees that will allow the European Investment Bank to raise funds from private investors to invest in various projects around Europe that, it is hoped, will create new jobs and boost growth.
In the UK we get the latest iteration of Q3 GDP numbers
, the day after UK policymakers raised the prospect of a tightening of monetary policy in the not too distant future.
Yesterday's testimony to UK lawmakers by Governor Mark Carney and messrs McCafferty and Kristin Forbes
appeared to reinforce the belief, contrary to the rather dovish inflation report, that on the balance of probabilities, markets were underestimating the timing of the next move in interest rates. All three of the MPC members appeared to suggest that the amount of slack in the UK economy was slowly diminishing, and that despite the current low inflation outlook, wages were already on the rise.
Today's Q3 GDP number is expected to come in at 0.7%,
an annualised rate of 3% and with fairly positive internals of business investment.
It's also set to be a busy day for US data with a deluge ahead of tomorrow's holiday with the latest durable goods numbers for October.
Expectations are for a 0.6% decline, following on from the 1.1% decline in September.
US weekly jobless claims
are set to come down from 291k to 287k , while personal spending and personal income data for October
is expected to show a rise of 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, a significant improvement on the September numbers.
The latest Chicago PMI data for November
is expected to slip back from 66.2 to 63 while the latest housing data for new and used home sales is expected to tick higher in October, reflecting an improving housing market.
- we continue to hold above the 1.2355 level and previous lows this month and as such remain susceptible to another squeeze higher. We need to move below 1.2350 level to target a move towards the 1.2040 level. We now need to hold onto the gains seen yesterday above 1.2450 to raise the possibility of a retest of the highs last week at 1.2600.
- still trading in the broad range between support at 1.5590 and resistance at 1.5745. A break either side could well determine the next move. Below 1.5590 targets 1.5430 while a move through 1.5750 could well see a move towards 1.5880.
- having found a bit of a base above the 0.7900 area we remain at risk for a pullback towards the 0.7980 level. While below the 200 day MA at 0.8050 as well as trend line resistance from the September highs at 0.8040, the risk remains for a fresh move lower, back towards the 0.7870 level.
- the inability to rally strongly yesterday keeps the prospect of a drift lower while below the highs last week at 118.98. Did we see a gravestone doji on the daily chart, followed by a bearish engulfing candle on Friday? Is this another false top or could we be set for a pullback? The US dollar still appears to be well supported for its move towards 120.00 on the dips with 115.40/45, the low last week likely to be a key support.
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