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ECB and US employment report the main events today

CMC Markets

If US investors were hoping that yesterday's ADP employment report would be the catalyst that drove the Dow through 17,000 they would have been disappointed, as good though the number was, they had to settle instead for a record close, as opposed to new record highs. Nevertheless yesterday's blow out ADP report has only served to heighten expectations of a similarly positive BLS number today. With the US off on Friday for the independence day holiday we have a host of event risk to navigate around today, ranging from European services PMI numbers for June, an ECB rate decision and press conference, as well as US weekly jobless claims, US employment report, trade balance numbers for May and the services ISM for June. Any volatility is likely to come from either the US employment report or the ECB press conference, with the rest of the data likely to be "market noise" That doesn't mean that the data is unimportant, far from it, but from a policy point of view it’s not likely to have a lasting effect. In Europe the services PMI's for Italy, Spain, Germany and France are likely to be mirrors of the manufacturing numbers earlier this week, with France holding the wooden spoon at 48.2, while Spain, Germany and Italy are expected to show readings well above 50 at 55.9, 54.8 and 52 respectively. Even allowing for concerns about the fragmented nature of the economic recovery in Europe, and last month’s policy easing, the likelihood of any new measures from the ECB remain between slim and none, despite comments earlier this week from Manuel Valls the French prime minister that the ECB needs to do much more to lower the value of the euro. Good luck with that! The fact is it that it remains way too soon for any trickle-down effect from last month’s policy actions to show any discernible results, even if they were perceived to be in any way effective. In any case Draghi's comments last month that interest rates were at the lower bound rather restrict his room for manoeuvre on that particular score. Markets are likely to be more interested to hear what Mr Draghi has to say in his press conference with respect to the prospects for additional measures like QE, as well as more details about the ABS market and details of how the TLTRO will work when it starts in September. At around the same time markets will also have their focus on the June employment report from the US, with expectations high that we could well get a strongly positive number in the wake of yesterday's strong ADP number of 281k. The strength of the number has also raised expectations that finally the US economy is finally shaking off the worst of the Q1 deep freeze. Over the second quarter ADP jobs growth averaged 222k per month, compared to 171k in Q1. Expectations for today's jobs number range from 160k to 290k, so its probably in there somewhere with the consensus about 210k which would equate to an average of 236k for Q2. The unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 6.3%, but there is a chance that it could well edge higher after last month’s sharp drop as discouraged workers return to the rolls in the hope that the labour market is recovering. Weekly jobless claims are expected to come in at 312k. The May trade balance is expected to come in at -$45bn, a slight improvement on the -$47.2bn in April, while services ISM is expected to come in at 56.3, unchanged from May. As a small aside this week’s rise in the pound could get an added push if June UK services PMI follows in the out performance of the manufacturing and construction numbers seen this week. Expectations are for a slight decline from 58.6 to 58.3, very much the poor relation, but still pretty good in the context of a solid Q2 GDP number. Given this week's upside surprises we could well get one here as well. EURUSD – the euro has slipped back a touch from its highs this week at 1.3700 and could well slip back towards 1.3620 after dropping back below the 200 day MA. The next resistance sits at 1.3740, the 100 day MA and behind that in the 1.3780 area. Support also comes in at 1.3560, while below that we also have key trend support from the 2012 lows at 1.2045, which now comes in just above 1.3490. GBPUSD – 1.7180 has capped the pound for now, but we remain on course for further gains towards 1.7330. 1.7330 is the 50% retracement of the decline from the 2007 highs at 2.1160 and the lows at 1.3500 in 2009. Only a move below 1.6910 support delays the scenario above. EURGBP – another new low at 0.7950 as we look to move towards 0.7880. We need to push through the 0.8035 area to stabilise and target 0.8085. The pressure remains on the downside while we remain below trend line resistance from the March highs sitting just below the 0.8090 level. USDJPY – having recovered back through the 200 day MA at 101.60 we could well see a move back towards Ichimoku cloud resistance at 102.50. For now we need to push through yesterday's high at 101.85 to retarget the range highs just below the 103.00 area and the June high at 102.75. CMC Markets is an execution only provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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