Crude oil tumbles amid hawkish Fed talk, flash PMI up next
Global market trading was fairly subdued to start the new week as is common at this time of year with many traders away on holiday and limited economic and corporate news.
The biggest action on the day came in the crude oil market with WTI and Brent both falling over 3.0% last week after defying gravity and outperforming markets by a wide margin last week. Gains on speculation of a deal among producers were running on fumes by the end of last week and a correction appears to be getting underway.
Today's trading action follows more hawkish Fed comments over the weekend, this time from Stanley Fischer, who indicated the Fed is close to hitting it's targets. On inflation he noted 1.6% Core PCE inflation is within hailing distance of the Fed's 2.0% target. On unemployment, he indicated that the unemployment rate is approaching natural levels (ie full employment) and while slower than last year, job growth is more than enough to indicate a strong job market.
His comments continue a trend from last week of Fed members talking down the level of job growth needed to satisfy the Fed to take action. Regional presidents Williams and Dudley indicated 50K -100K per month would indicate a steady job market. While Fischer didn't call for a hike soon as Dudley did last week, the street has taken these comments as hawkish leanings toward a rate hike this year. With 2 of the Fed's Big 3 members now in the hawkish camp, traders may look to Fed Chair Yellen's comments at Jackson Hole on Friday to give more of a sense of whether the Fed is leaning toward a September or December increase.
Today flash PMI reports plus UK CBI orders give the first indications into how economies are doing in the second month following the UK Brexit vote and whether or not any longer term impacts have appeared. Japan’s report may indicate meanwhile, whether previous stimulus talk and efforts have been working and how much pressure Governor Kuroda and PM Abe are under to do more. Tuesday also brings the kickoff to Canadian bank earnings week with Bank of Montreal. Results for this quarter may be mixed between distortions from the Fort McMurray wildfires, a sluggish Canadian economy and a strong US economy.
There have been no major announcements after the US close today
Significant announcements released overnight include:
There were no major economic announcements today.
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
12:00 pm AEST Japan flash manufacturing PMI previous 49.3
3:00 pm AEST Singapore consumer prices street (0.5%)
3:00 pm AEST Singapore core CPI street 1.0%
8:00 am BST France flash manufacturing PMI street 48.8
8:00 am BST France flash service PMI street 50.5
8:30 am BST Germany flash manufacturing PMI street 53.6
8:30 am BST Germany flash service PMI street 54.4
11:00 am BST UK CBI total orders street (10) vs previous (4)
9:45 am EDT US flash manufacturing PMI street 52.6
10:00 am EDT US Richmond Fed street 6 vs previous 10
10:00 am EDT US new home sales street 580K