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Commentary: ADP payrolls shocker, Service PMI, China GDP move markets

CMC Markets

The impact of the situation in Crimea on global markets faded as quickly as fast as it arrived. Although the situation could rear up again, market focus has turned to more immediate matters. The ADP private sector payrolls report has painted a very different picture of what has been going on in the US economy. Not only did February payrolls come in below expectations, which could be blamed on weather, more distressingly, payrolls for October through January were also revised sharply lower. In reaction to the news US indices like the Dow and S&P have started to retreat but only moderately relative to yesterday’s gains so the S&P still remains above last week’s high. Traders may be looking to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for confirmation before deciding what this may mean for tapering. Recent Fed comments on balance suggest that they plan to continue tapering unless something major happens. With so much weather disruption and conflicting indicators this winter, they may keep tapering going for another meeting or two before making a decision, just as they delayed the start of tapering last fall from September to December. European indices are mixed with the FTSE, Dax and CAC lower and the MIB and IBEX higher on generally better than expected service PMI numbers that take some of the pressure off the ECB to do something at its meeting tomorrow. Stocks in China and Hong Kong were lower overnight after China announced that it is holding this year’s growth target at 7.5% on concerns it may have trouble reaching that goal as it works to rebalance its economy from export driven toward more domestic consumption. AUD and NZD, which are often sensitive to China, ignored the forecast rallying on the back of stronger than expected quarter over quarter Australian GDP growth. CAD has also been climbing ahead of today’s Bank of Canada meeting, while JPY and CHF remain at the bottom of the league standings suggesting that we are also continuing to see capital rotate back out of defensive plays into more aggressive stances. Corporate News PetSmart $1.28 vs street $1.21 Economic News Economic reports released overnight and this morning include: US ADP payrolls 139K vs street 155K previous revised way down to 127K from 175K China announced a 7.5% GDP growth rate target for this year, same as last year. Australia GDP over year 2.5% vs street 2.8% and previous 2.4% Australia GDP over quarter 0.8% vs street 0.7% and previous 0.6% Eurozone retail sales 1.3% vs street (0.2%) Eurozone GDP 0.5% as expected Poland interest rate decision 2.50% no change as expected Service PMI reports include: China HSBC 51.0 vs previous 50.7 Japan 49.3 vs previous 51.2 India 48.8 vs previous 48.3 UK 58.2 vs previous 58.3 Germany 55.9 vs previous 55.4 Spain 53.7 vs previous 49.4 Italy 52.9 vs previous 49.4 France 47.2 vs previous 46.9 Brazil 50.8 vs previous 49.9 Economic reports due later today include: 10:00 am EST Canada interest rate decision 1.00% no change expected 10:00 am EST US non-manufacturing PMI street 53.5 10:30 am EST US crude oil inventories street 1.3 mmbbls 10:30 am EST US gasoline inventories street (1.0 mmbbls)


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