Since May, EURUSD
has been under distribution, steadily declining, but may reach a turning point over the next 24 hours.
EUR has been falling mainly due to a combination of speculation that more monetary stimulus may be needed to prop up a stagnant European economy at the same time that a growing US economy is putting more pressure on the Fed to reduce stimulus which has shored up USD.
Thursday morning could be an active time for trading EURUSD. At 7:45 am ET the ECB’s latest monetary policy decision is due followed by President Draghi’s press conference at 8:30 am ET. The downdraft of the last two weeks has been partly due to speculation that more stimulus could be announced at the September meeting.
Considering that the ECB is already delivering the first tranche of new targeted LTRO cheap loans this month, even more stimulus appears unlikely until the ECB implements and sees the effect of what it has already announced. A failure to bring in additional stimulus immediately could disappoint EUR bears and spark short covering. On the other hand if they do announce new stimulus, EUR could be depressed further.
In between the decision and the explanation we could see US driven action in this pair as well with ADP payrolls due. A strong figure say over 200K could put more pressure on the Fed to take a more hawkish turn which could boost USD while a soft figure under 200K could be seen as giving doves room to hold off a bit longer.
EURUSD has started to find some support near $1.3100 and with its RSI the most oversold it has been in over a year, a trading bounce appears possible, perhaps back toward $1.3235 near a Fibonacci level. A breakdown, however, would signal a new downleg that could potentially probe the $1.3000 round number.