Canada election and crude oil weigh on CAD, RBA minutes on the way
01:00, 19 oktober 2015
· Av CMC Markets
While US stocks had a relatively quiet start to the week, Canada’s election has attracted quite a bit of attention from traders. The final polls showed the Liberals in the lead over the Conservatives with the NDP (equivalent to Labour elsewhere) running a distant third.
The potential for a change in government appears to have weighed on Canadian stocks and CAD a bit today, although to be honest, it’s hard to tell how much of the weakness from election uncertainty and how much was from the 2.9% fall in oil and 1.1% decline in gold as USD bounced back a bit.
CAD pairs could be active through the evening hours. Polls in most of the country close at 6:30 or 7:00 pm PDT (11:30 am to 12:00 pm AEDT) so the results should be clear within an hour or so after that. Overall, I would expect the markets to take a win by the Liberals or the Conservatives mostly in stride, but a result that gives the NDP significant leverage in a minority government/hung parliament situation could arouse concern over its promise to walk away from the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal.
It’s another big week for earnings and a big cut to guidance from Big Blue could weigh on the technology sector with a flood of earnings due from that area, particularly Google and Microsoft on Thursday night.
For Asia Pacific markets today, Australia looks to be in focus with traders looking to the RBA minutes for signs of whether the central bank is considering cutting interest rates again. Markets may also continue to react to yesterday’s mixed China data which showed that the broader hasn’t collapsed as had been feared previously, helping China stocks to continue their recovery.
IBM $3.34 vs street $3.31, sales $19.2B vs street $19.6B. slashes full year guidance to $14.75-$15.75 from $15.75-$16.50
SanDisk reported to be up for sale and apparently in talks to potentially be acquired by Western Digital
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US NAHB housing market index 64 vs street 62
UK Rightmove house prices 5.6% vs previous 6.4%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
6:30 pm PDT onward Canada federal election results
11:30 am AEDT Australia RBA meeting minutes
7:00 am BST Germany producer prices street (1.8%)
8:30 am EDT US housing starts street 1,142K
8:30 am EDT US building permits street 1,170K
9:00 am EDT FOMC Dudley speaking
11:00 am EDT FOMC Yellen speaking
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