US and European indices
finished the day higher carrying on the positive momentum we saw continue in yesterday’s Asia Pacific trading. European indices gained more than their US counterparts as Greece posted some less dismal than expected figures and made its IMF payment easing risks for the moment.
After US markets closed, however, Citrix Systems put out a profit warning raising more questions about the impact soft economies in different parts of the world and the higher USD could mean for earnings and guidance this quarter and beyond. Earnings misses could potentially rain on the stock markets’ parade, particularly if more companies were to follow suit.
Crude oil remains active and volatile creating opportunities for both bulls and bears. After a 5% crash Wednesday WTI started Thursday with a 2% rebound before giving it all back and slipping under the water line again.
Currency trading showed AUD and NZD benefitting from the halo effect of the big stock market rallies in Hong, Kong, Tokyo and elsewhere. All of these markets could be active again today around the Chinese inflation report which kicks off the run up toward next week’s Chinese GDP report. On their own, inflation figures may indicate how much scope the PBOC has to keep using monetary tools to boost the economy and if they may have to act even more aggressively.
Tomorrow morning brings the Canadian employment report, a key figure which may give a better indication of whether the Bank of Canada needs to cut interest rates again next week or not. Although US job growth came in way below expectations for March, it’s not unusual for Canada and the US to go their own way on jobs from month to month. Last month there was a surprisingly big 35K increase in full time jobs in Canada so we may see a retrenchment. The report may give us an indication of whether the negative impact of the lower oil price or the positive impact of the lower Loonie is stronger at the moment. The street is flat, I’m going to guess -15K mainly on the full time side.
Citrix Systems Profit Warning! Cuts Q1 guidance to $0.63-$0.65 from $0.70-$0.72., cuts revenue guidance to $755-$760M from $780-$790M. Blames shortfall on restructuring and forex volatility (higher US Dollar)
Significant announcements released overnight include:
UK interest rate and QE 0.50% and £375B no change as expected
US jobless claims 281K vs street 283K
US natural gas storage 15 BCF vs street 8 BCF
Canada new house prices 1.4% as expected
Germany industrial production (0.3%) vs street 0.6%
Germany trade balance €19.2B vs street €19.0B
UK Halifax house prices 3m/yr 8.1% vs street 8.2%
UK trade balance (£2.8B) vs street (£1.5B)
Greece industrial production 1.9% vs street (2.1%)
Greece consumer prices (2.1%) as expected
Greece unemployment rate 25.7% vs street 26.2%
Upcoming significant announcements include:
11:30 am AEDT China consumer prices street 1.3%
11:30 am AEDT China producer prices street (4.8%)
7:45 am BST France industrial production street 0.5%
8:00 am BST Spain industrial output street 0.1%
9:00 am BST Norway industrial production previous (0.4%)
9:00 am BST Norway consumer prices street 2.1%
9:00 am BST Norway producer prices previous (9.9%)
9:30 am BST UK industrial production street 0.3%
9:30 am BST UK manufacturing prodn street 1.3%
9:30 am BST UK construction output street 1.9%
8:15 am EDT Canada housing starts street 175K
8:30 am EDT Canada jobs change street 0K
8:30 am EDT Canada full time jobs previous 34K
8:30 am EDT Canada part-time jobs previous (34K)
8:30 am EDT Canada unemployment rate street 6.9%
8:30 am EDT Canada participation rate previous 65.8%
1:00 pm EDT US Baker Hughes rig count previous 1,028