Can Aussie jobs and Kiwi PMI keep the Dollar party going?
There has been a significant change in direction over the course of the US session today. Early on USD had been strong but the greenback has steadily weakened through the day. US data including the Empire manufacturing and industrial production reports came in below expectations, further removing support for a June rate cut. Even if there was a seasonal weather impact on March data, it’s going to take another month at least to figure it out, likely pushing out rate liftoff to later in the year. In addition to sending USD south, the news lifted an overhang from other markets, including US stocks.
One of the stronger markets today has been crude oil with WTI up 5% and Brent up 2%. Traders responded favourably to news that the International Energy Agency boosted its 2015 demand forecast while ignoring the fact that it was offset by a similar increase in the supply forecast. A smaller than expected increase in US inventories sparked a second advance than enabled WTI to break out of a base that has been forming over the last three months.
The USD drop and oil price rise has created favourable conditions for resource Dollars. CAD has also broken out of a base today as several factors came together to give it a tailwind. In addition to the oil price rise, Canadian existing home sales were strong and Bank of Canada comments were particularly supportive.
CAD had weakened a bit ahead of the Bank of Canada decision but fears turned out to be unwarranted Not only did the central bank not cut rates as expected, but Governor Poloz indicated that he expects the economy to start rebounding in Q2. Interestingly, the bank indicated that while the oil price crash impact was more front loaded than thought, it hasn’t been worse than expected either. Although the bank cut its 2015 GDP growth forecast to 1.9% from 2.1%, it also indicated the export sector is growing twice as fast as the overall economy, so the lower loonie appears to be having a positive impact. All of this suggests that the Bank is likely one and done on interest rate cuts, which sent CAD higher on the day.
AUD and NZD have also been climbing on the back of a falling USD and improved sentiment toward resource currencies. Today’s data from Australia and New Zealand, employment and PMI respectively may indicate whether AUD and NZD will be able to keep their upward momentum going enough to break out of their own bases. For the Australian job numbers in addition to the headline, keep an eye on the full-time part-time split which was weaker in Canada this month but stronger in Australia last month.
NetFlix $0.38, $0.77 excluding forex losses vs street adjusted $0.97. sales $1.57B in line
NetFlix subscribers US 2.2 M vs guidance 1.8M, international 2.60M vs guidance 2.25M
NetFlix Q2 guidance $0.26 vs street $0.83
SanDisk $0.62 vs street $0.70
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Canada interest rate decision 0.75% no change as expected
ECB interest rate and QE decision no change as expected
International Energy Agency raised its 2015 demand forecast by 1.1 mmbbl/d to 93.6 mmbbl/d
Raised its 2015 supply forecast by 1.0 mmbbl/d to 95.2 mmbbl/d mainly on higher supply from OPEC (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Libya).
Cut its US supply forecast by 0.16 mmbbl/d on slower exploration activity and reduced production growth
US Empire manufacturing (1.1) vs street 7.1
US industrial production (0.6%) vs street (0.3%)
US manufacturing production 0.1% as expected
US crude oil inventories 1.2 mmbbls vs street 3.5 mmbbls and previous 10.9 mmbbls
US FOMC Beige Book
Canada manufacturing sales (1.7%) vs street 0.3%
Canada existing home sales 4.1% vs previous 1.0%
Upcoming significant announcements include:
10:30 am NZST NZ Business PMI previous 55.9
11:30 am AEST Australia employment change street 15K
11:30 am AEST Australia full-time previous 10K
11:30 am AEST Australia part-time previous 5K
11:30 am AEST Australia unemployment rate street 6.3%
8:30 am EDT US jobless claims street 280K
8:30 am EDT US housing starts street 1,040K
8:30 am EDT US building permits street 1,081K
10:00 am EDT US Philadelphia Fed street 6.0
10:30 am EDT US natural gas street 53 BCF
FOMC Lockhart, Mester and Fischer speaking