Speculation that ECB President Draghi would ride in and save the day was running so high this morning that the
Dax touched an all-time high just before the press conference started. Attitudes quickly reversed course, and once the event started the Dax took a sharp turn downward and has been slammed for a 100 point loss and sliced down through the 10,000 round number. The Dax now appears to be heading for a bearish key reversal day which could signal a top and a trend change.
US indices have also turned downward. Although the ECB cut its forecasts again, highlighting the need for more stimulus, President Draghi indicates plans to wait until next year to measure the results of stimulus so far before deciding on what to do next.
Here are the results. In November, the ECB balance sheet finally stopped shrinking but didn’t increase very much either despite all the talk about asset purchases. This month, the second round of new targeted LTRO loans is planned. Clearly this round needs to be a bigger success than the September round which was a big flop, with demand only about half of what the street had expected at the time.
EUR had been under pressure on anticipation of more stimulus and is rebounding into top spot as that didn’t materialize, pulling CHF and SEK along for the ride. CAD is holding on to yesterday’s gains and could be active later this morning around the Ivey PMI report.
Other major paper currencies and gold are holding steady today. Crude oil has slipped back a bit on reports that Saudi Arabia has cut its January prices for the US and Asia meaning that the market share battle is still on. Natural gas is under pressure falling over 1% heading into today’s inventory reports. GBP is the
Today the focus may remain on Europe and what no new stimulus may mean for the economy in the near term. As we head into tomorrow, focus turns back toward North America and tomorrow’s US nonfarm payrolls and Canada employment reports.
Corporate News
TD Bank $0.98 vs street $1.05, expects a more challenging 2015
CIBC $2.24 vs street $2.25, 3% dividend increase
Gildan $1.07 vs street $1.00
Dollarama $0.55 vs street $0.54
Economic News
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
UK interest rate and QE 0.50% and £375B no change as expected
ECB interest rate 0.30% no change as expected
ECB deposit rate (0.20%) no change as expected
Brazil interest rate 0.50% increase to 11.75% as expected
ECB forecasts for Eurozone
2014 GDP cut to 0.8% from 0.9%
2015 GDP cut to 1.0% from 1.6%
2016 GDP cut to 1.5% from 1.9%
2014 inflation cut to 0.5% from 0.6%
2015 inflation cut to 0.7% from 1.1%
2016 inflation cut to 1.3% from 1.4%
US jobless claims 297K vs street 295K
NZ house prices 5.1% vs previous 5.9%
Australia retail sales 0.4% vs street 0.1%
Australia trade balance ($1.3B) vs street ($1.8B)
France unemployment rate 10.4% vs street 10.3%
UK Halifax house prices 8.2% vs street 8.0%
Germany construction PMI 53.5 vs previous 51.5
Economic reports due later today include:
10:00 am EST Canada Ivey PMI street 52.5
10:30 am EST US natural gas street (35 BCF)
FOMC members Mester and Brainard speaking
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