t’s a big day for news that could spark significant trading action and opportunities across many markets.
So far this morning, the main event has been Eurozone inflation reports, the last major data point for them ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting. Inflation remained soft stoking speculation that the ECB remains under pressure to do something big on the stimulus side. EUR has fallen since the news, which has also weighed on neighbouring currencies like GBP, CHF, SEK and NOK. Currency losses and gains in stock indices like the CAC and IBEX have been small (with the Dax
actually down on the day). This means that a lot of stimulus has already been priced into markets. Because of this, the surprise factor for tomorrow has shifted to the ECB may not do enough to satisfy markets which could spark a significant reversal.
CAD has been steady overnight ahead of today’s Bank of Canada meeting and interest rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to announce no change even though yesterday’s Canadian GDP repost came in soft for September. A rate cut or dovish leaning would come as a surprise that could drive the loonie down. No change and a neutral statement could help CAD to continue base building. In my opinion, the Bank of Canada is likely to keep its remaining rate firepower in reserve just in case oil falls further in 2016 or the country drops into a broader recession. More positive bank earnings could also attract interest from traders.
It’s also another potentially big day for Fed speculation. ADP payrolls are due this morning which along with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls could help to settle the score between yesterday’s weak manufacturing PMI and strong construction spending. The street is looking for an increase to 190K from 182 K last month, I think we’ll see a small decline back toward 160K as seasonal hiring was soft outside of Amazon and a couple of other companies. The number will show if managers have held off hiring until after the Fed meeting and holidays or not. It would take a really poor report like a negative number to knock the Fed off course.
Today also brings a number of FOMC members speaking plus the Beige Book Regional report. Two appearances by Fed Chair Yellen could be particularly significant to see if she is going to panic or indicate the Fed remains on track toward liftoff. Don't forget that since September, signs of dovishness have been seen as a negative for stocks while hawkish signs have been read as a positive for equity markets.
Last night FOMC Governor Brainard spoke and maintained her cautious tone toward liftoff which was not a surprise. More importantly, she talked about what could be in store after liftoff, indicating that she thinks the neutral rate for this cycle could be closer to 1.0% or 1.5% rather than the 2.25% of previous cycles. She also indicated the rate path would but gradual and low, plus she would not want to see the Fed start to reduce its balance sheet until interest rates are high enough to give the Fed back the firepower to use them to combat a downturn. This means that the big gains in USD over the last year may have priced in a more aggressive rate hike program than we are likely to see and that we could be nearing significant turning points for USD, gold, EUR and other currencies in the coming days.
Crude oil has been trading lower this morning following a surprise increase in US API oil inventories, but even with this disappointment, WTI which remains above $40.00, a big round number that appears to be pretty well defended. Action around today’s DOE inventory reports could give a better idea if the oil market is getting washed out.
Royal Bank of Canada $1.74 vs street $1.65, credit loss provision $275M below street $305M
National Bank of Canada $1.16 as expected, 3,8% dividend increase
Significant announcements released overnight include:
UK BRC shop prices (2.1%) vs previous (1.8%)
Spain unemployment change (27K) vs street (6K)
UK construction PMI 55.3 vs street 58.5
Eurozone producer prices (3.1%) vs street (3.2%)
Eurozone consumer prices 0.1% vs street 0.2%
Eurozone core CPI 0.9% vs street 1.1%
Australia Q3 GDP 2.5% vs street 2.4% vs previous 2.0%
NZ dairy prices 3.6% vs previous (7.9%)
Upcoming significant announcements include:
TBA Poland interest rate 1.50% no change expected
8:15 am EST US ADP payrolls street 190K vs previous 182K
10:00 am EST Canada BoC interest rate 0.50% no change expected
10:30 am EST US DOE crude oil inventories street (0.9 mmbbls)
10:30 am EST US DOE gasoline inventories street 1.5 mmbbls
2:00 pm EST US Fed beige book
8:10 am EST FOMC Lockhart speaking
8:30 am 12:25 pm EST FOMC Yellen speaking
9:00 am EST FOMC Tarullo speaking
3:40 pm EST FOMC Williams speaking
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