il’s big rally has come to an abrupt end in the last few minutes with Black Gold tumbling in the wake of a surprise increase in weekly API inventories of 6.2 mmbbls. For the last week oil had attracted support from traders based on falling API and DOE stockpiles last week, so this announcement has caused at least one wheel to fall of the bulls’ bandwagon and others to wobble. Other factors supporting oil’s advance that haven’t changed are continuing speculation surrounding Sunday’s produces meeting in Qatar amid reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached a deal on freezing production, and the announcement from the IEA that US production fell by 90,000 bbl/d last month.
So far the API damage appears to be contained to crude oil with traders likely awaiting confirmation from tomorrow’s DOE report as both numbers can be volatile week to week. CAD and stocks had benefitted from Tuesday’s oil rally and so far those markets have continued to hold up. CAD may remain active through tomorrow’s Bank of Canada meeting. With Canada retail sales growing 2.1%, core at CPI 1.9%, Jan GDP up 1.5%, housing starts above 200K, and 40K jobs added last month including 35K full time there’s no reason for the central bank to cut rates and with CAD having bounced back dramatically since the last meeting, there’s no reason for a rate hike either. Based on this, the Bank of Canada looks likely to take a neutral stance and not make any policy changes.
The commodity rally has broadened out from crude oil to include metals like copper and grains like corn and wheat, which could influence trading in Australian resource stocks today. The resource weighted Canada markets rose 1.5% on the day outpacing the Dow’s 1.0% gain to the upside. Australian and Chinese stocks, AUD, NZD, copper and other China sensitive markets may also be active today around the China trade and New Zealand food price reports.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals received a notice of default from some of its bondholders demanding it file its 10-K annual report by June 16th. The company indicated it plans to file the report by April 29th.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
IMF Global GDP forecast
2016 cut to 3.2% from 3.4%
2017 cut to 3.5% from 3.6%
IMF US GDP forecast
2016 cut to 2.4% from 2.6%
2017 cut to 2.5% from 2.6%
US API crude oil inventories 6.2 mmbbls vs street 0.7 mmbbls
EIA US crude oil production fell by 90,000 bbl/d in March 2016
China foreign direct investment 7.8% vs street 2.4%
US import prices (6.2%) vs street (4.8%) and previous (6.1%)
Latest ICM Brexit referendum poll Leave 45% (up 2%) Remain 42% (down 2%) undecided 12%.
UK consumer prices 0.5% vs street 0.4%
UK core CPI 1.5% vs street 1.3%
UK retail prices 1.6% vs street 1.4%
UK producer input prices (6.5%) vs street (6.2%) and previous (8.1%)
UK producer output prices (0.9%) vs street (1.0%)
UK ONS house prices 7.6% vs previous 7.9%
UK same store sales (0.7%) vs street 2.0% and previous 0.1%
Germany consumer prices 0.3% as expected
Sweden consumer prices 0.8% vs street 0.7% and previous 0.4%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
8:45 am AEST NZ Food prices previous (0.6%)
9:50 am AEST Japan producer prices street (3.5%)
11:30 am AEST Australia consumer conf previous 99.1
TBA China trade balance street $34.9B
TBA China exports street 10.0% vs previous (25.4%)
TBA China imports street (10.1%) vs previous (13.8%)
7:45 am BST France consumer prices street (0.2%)
8:00 am BST Spain consumer prices street (0.8%)
10:00 am BST Eurozone industrial production street 1.3%
8:30 am EDT US retail sales street 0.1%
8:30 am EDT US retail ex auto street 0.4%
8:30 am EDT US producer prices street 0.3%
8:30 am EDT US core PPI street 1.3%
10:00 am EDT Canada interest rate 0.50% no change expected
10:00 am EDT Bank of Canada Poloz, Wilkins speaking
10:30 am EDT US DOE crude oil inventories street 1.0 mmbbls vs previous (4.9 mmbbls)
10:30 am EDT US DOE gasoline inventories street (1.5 mmbbls)
2:00 pm EDT Fed Beige Book
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