arket action from around the world remains very mixed as traders try to sort out the implications of a Trump Presidency for the world economy leading to high volatility and overextended swings
in both directions.
US indices for example had a mixed performance. The Dow and the Russell 2000 both reached new all-time highs today the latter providing a positive breadth signal for the current rally. On the other hand, the NASDAQ sold off again, indicating that traders are still rebalancing their holdings, taking profits out of high value tech stocks to fund moves into other sectors like manufacturing, construction and financial services.
The US Dollar continued to soar Monday with the Dollar Index trading up to the big 100.00 round number on speculation that more fiscal stimulus could boost employment and inflation and lead to more Fed interest rate increases. Bond prices continue to fall, boosting yields and sending the priced in odds of a December rate hike over the 90% level. On the other hand, JPY, whose central bank remains in full on stimulus mode was crushed again today even underperforming currencies that have otherwise been struggling like CAD and EUR.
The loonie had a better day today, bouncing back along with the oil price while copper resumed its uptrend following a correction, gold finished well up from its lows and natural gas ports a 5% rally. This suggests that resource currencies like AUD and NZD, plus mining and energy stocks could find some support today. Canada’s resource weighted index finished the day with a small gain. Australian markets could be active around today’s RBA minutes, with traders looking for indications of whether any rate hikes are planned for Australia (New Zealand cut rates since the RBA meeting) or if Governor Lowe is serious about going neutral for a while.
Tuesday brings a flurry of economic reports including inflation data for the UK, Germany GDP and US retail sales. This likely won’t make a difference for Fed speculation but European data could impact trading in GBP and EUR. It’s another busy day for FOMC member speeches with several voters on the schedule each day for the rest of the week. Fedspeak could give traders an indication of how many rate hikes the Fed is thinking for the next year. In 2015 and 2016 there are likely to be one each. The recent rally in USD that has pushed the US Dollar index up to 100.00 form 95.00 suggests traders have moved their forecasts up to four hikes from two, potentially leaving the US Dollar vulnerable to a correction should attitudes change again.
There have been no major announcements after the US close today
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Eurozone industrial production 1.2% vs street 0.9%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
5:00 pm EST FOMC Lacker speaking
6:30 pm EST FOMC Williams speaking
11:30 am AEDT Australia RBA minutes
4:00 pm AEDT Singapore retail sales street 1.8% vs previous (1.0%)
4:00 pm AEDT Singapore retail ex auto street (0.4%) vs previous (6.5%)
7:00 am GMT Norway Q3 GDP over quarter street (0.5%)
7:00 am GMT Germany Q3 GDP street 1.6% vs previous 3.1%
9:00 am GMT Italy Q3 GDP street 0.8%
10:00 am GMT Eurozone Q3 GDP street 1.6%
7:45 am GMT France consumer prices street 0.4%
8:00 am GMT Spain consumer prices street 0.7%
8:30 am GMT Sweden consumer prices street 1.2% vs previous 0.9%
9:30 am GMT UK consumer prices street 1.1%
9:30 am GMT UK core CPI street 1.4%
9:30 am GMT UK retail prices street 2.3%
9:30 am GMT UK producer input prices street 9.3%
9:30 am GMT UK producer output prices street 1.8%
9:30 am GMT UK house prices street 8.1%
10:00 am GMT Germany ZEW current street 61.6
10:00 am GMT Germany ZEW expectations previous 12.3
7:30 am EST FOMC Rosengren speaking
8:30 am EST US Empire manufacturing street (2.5)
8:30 am EST US retail sales street 0.6%
8:30 am EST US retail ex auto street 0.5%
8:30 am EST Canada Teranet house prices previous 11.7%
9:05 am EST FOMC Tarullo speaking
12:15 pm EST Canada Morneau speaking
1:00 pm EST ECB Nowotny speaking on Brexit
1:30 pm EST FOMC Fischer speaking
1:30 pm EST FOMC Kaplan speaking
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