EUR/USD – triple resistance test
A hard deadline looms for Greece, with payments to the IMF due by 30th June. Default of some kind is looking more likely, yet EUR/USD is going through another bought of strength. The recent rises put the pair at a point where some traders may start thinking more bearishly, despite a short term uptrend on the daily chart.
A weaker USD following a dovish statement from the FOMC last week may also be contributing to the rise. It’s possible that some European investors are calling back international investments in anticipation of a market disruption, lending further support.
However, the “big picture” in my view is suggesting significantly lower levels for EUR/USD. European growth rates appear anaemic, in contrast to the USA. The ECB is pumping Euros into the global monetary system. The US Fed could lift interest rates this year. Frankly, Greece is too small to make an economic difference, but it could trigger a sentiment swing.
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