USD strengthens, CAD weakens as jobs essentially meet expectations
01:00, 07 august 2015
· Av CMC Markets
Today’s US and Canadian job reports came in essentially as expected with no major surprises. The main impact of these reports has been on currency trading with stocks holding steady on the news.
USD has advanced moderately against pretty much all the majors plus gold as the lack of a dovish surprise keeps the Fed on track toward raising interest rates later this year, although the timing over the three remaining meetings remains up in the air. (I’m leading toward hawkish dissenters in September and liftoff in December).
CAD has weakened a bit on the Canadian employment news, and it’s more than just a USD effect as CAD has fallen against GBP and JPY since the report as well. The decline in full time jobs may be weighing on the loonie, but as far as I am concerned this was just a normal retrenchment of last month’s huge jump and if we look over two months, headline jobs are essentially unchanged.
Similarly the rebound in part-time comes after a big decline a month earlier in a common return to the middle. Crude oil trading lower hasn’t been helping the loonie’s cause. We could see more activity in CAD around 10:00 when the Ivey Canada PMI report comes out.
It was relatively quiet overnight for earnings reports but the media sector may remain active as the street continues to digest this week’s big selloffs in Disney, Viacom and others and tries to figure out if Netflix can continue its tightrope act.
Magna International $1 29 vs street $1.16, sales $8.1B vs street $7.8B
Telus $0.66 as expected
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Bank of Japan decision no change to interest rates, QE or
lone hawkish dissenter as expected
US nonfarm payrolls 215K vs street 225K
US payrolls revision 231K vs previous 223K
US private payrolls 210K vs street 212K
US average hourly earnings 2.1% vs street 2.3% and previous 2.0%
US unemployment rate 5.3% as expected
US participation rate 62.6% as expected
Canada employment change 7K vs street 5K
Canada full-time jobs (17K) vs street 64K
Canada part-time jobs 24K vs street (71K)
Canada unemployment rate 6.8% as expected
Canada building permits 14.8% vs street 5.0%
Germany industrial production 0.6% vs street 2.2%
Germany trade balance €24.0B vs street €21.0B
France trade balance (€2.6B) vs street (€3.6B)
France industrial production 0.6% vs street 1.4%
Spain industrial output 4.5% vs street 3.8%
Norway industrial production 2.8% vs previous 4.2%
UK trade balance (£1.6B) vs street (£1.7B)
Greece consumer prices (2.2%) vs street (2.0%)
Australia construction PMI 47.1 vs previous 46.4
Australia home loans 4.4% vs street 5.0%
Upcoming significant announcements include:
10:00 am EDT Canada Ivey PMI street 51.5 vs previous 55.9
1:00 pm EDT US Baker Hughes drill rig count previous 874
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