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USD rallies on strong GDP report, plus thoughts on energy sector earnings

USD rallies on strong GDP report, plus thoughts on energy sector earnings

01:00, 30 juli 2015

Stock markets around the world are mixed today with European and Japanese indices trading higher while China’s indices resumed their decline and US markets appear to be heading for a lower open. Today’s GDP report overall has ended up being much stronger than expected. Although 2.3% growth in Q2 was a bit below expectations, it was a big improvement on Q1 and was more than offset by a big upward revision to Q1 back into positive territory. In addition, US core PCE inflation, a measure the Fed uses was higher than expected at 1.8% and getting close to the Fed’s 2.0% target. This news overall increases pressure on the Fed to start raising interest rates in September. The next key data point for Fed speculation comes with next Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. We also could see significant action in markets today surrounding earnings reports. Facebook fell in aftermarket trading overnight as traders continued to take money off the table following a recent rally. Growth in expenses and a forecast slowing of ad revenue growth appear to be getting the blame for the declines. The energy sector may also attract a lot of attention today with a lot of results from majors in the US and Canada out today with more due tomorrow. So far, the big story remains the huge divergence in results between downstream companies (integrateds and refiners) and oil producers. Companies with refining assets like Suncor and Valero have been able to take advantage of the wide crack spread between the gasoline and crude prices to post strong results. Upstream producers, like ConocoPhillips, Marathon, Cenovus and Penn West however, continue to be impacted by lower oil prices with layoffs and dividend cuts indicating companies expect the downturn to last for a long time to come. It has been a big day for Canadian company earnings in other sectors too. In technology, Open Text beat the street by a wide margin. Bombardier could be torn between positive test results for the CSeries and the struggles at its business aircraft division. Gold and base metal producers may be impacted by poor results and dividend cuts at Goldcorp and First Quantum. Potash missed slightly on earnings and came in a bit soft on guidance. Corporate News Facebook $0.50 vs street $0.47, sales $4.04B vs street $3.09B, daily users 968M vs street 960M, growth rate in ad revenue expected to slow in second half MetLife $1.56 vs street $1.49 ConocoPhillips $0.07 vs street $0.04, cut 2015 capex to $11.0B from $11.5B Occidental Petroleum $0.21 vs street $0.22 Marathon Petroleum $1.51 vs street $1.77 Valero Energy $2.66 vs street $2.41 Suncor Energy $0.50 vs street $0.35, 3.6% dividend increase Cenovus Energy CFPS $0.58 vs street $0.67, 40% dividend cut, dropped goal of 500K BOE/d production by 2021, 300-400 additional layoffs Penn West ($0.23) vs street ($0.16) cut 2015 funds flow from operations guidance to $350-400M from $500-550M Potash Corp. $0.50 vs street $0.51, guides next Q EPS to $0.35-$0.45 vs street $0.43 Bombardier $0.06 vs street $0.05, revised downward business aircraft profit outlook, Global 7000 jet delayed to 2018, CSeries on track for commercial flight H12016, tests show performance exceeding targets Open Text $0.87 vs street $0.69 Cameco $0.12 vs street $0.20 First Quantum $0.03 vs street $0.10, 32% dividend cut Goldcorp $0.08 vs street $0.07, 60% dividend cut Golden Star ($0.06) vs street ($0.04) Agnico-Eagle $0.07 vs street $0.08 Kinross Gold ($0.01) as expected Methanex $0.56 vs street $0.70 Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: US Q2 GDP 2.3% vs street 2.5% US Q1 GDP revised upward to 0.6% from (0.2%) US Q2 personal consumption 2.9% vs street 2.7% US Q2 core PCE inflation 1.8% vs street 1.6% Germany unemployment change 9K vs street (5K) Germany unemployment rate 6.4% as expected Germany consumer prices street 0.1% Spain GDP 3.1% as expected Spain consumer prices 0.0% as expected Sweden GDP 3.0% vs street 2.5% Norway retail sales 1.0% vs street 0.8% Brazil interest rate surprise 0.50% increase to 14.25% Australia export prices (4.4%) vs street (4.0%) NZ building permits (4.1%) vs previous 0.0% Japan industrial production 2.0% vs street 0.3% Singapore unemployment rate 2 0% vs street 1.9% Upcoming significant announcements include: 10:30 am EDT US natural gas street 55 BCF

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Finanstilsynets standardiserte risikoadvarsel: CFD-er er komplekse finansielle instrumenter og investeringer i disse innebærer høy risiko for å tape penger raskt, grunnet gearing. 70,5% av ikke-profesjonelle kunder taper penger når de handler i disse produktene. Du bør vurdere om du forstår hvordan CFD-er fungerer og om du har råd til å ta den høye risikoen for å tape pengene dine.