USD drops heading into inflation reports
The big story in today’s European and North American trading has been the continued decline in USD which has taken the lid off of other major currencies, enabling gold, EUR, SEK and CHF to rebound. With the exception of the Philly Fed index, US data remained soft further kindling speculation that the Fed may hold off on interest rate increases until later in the year.
The continental currencies strong performance came at the expense of continental indices which have continued to give back some of their recent gains. Rumours and denials over whether Greeece will be able to repay its debts or not and come to an agreement with its creditors or now continues to impact European trading. Because of this, it’s hard to say how much of EUR action is USD related and how much is a relief rally from depressed levels.
WTI started the day off soft in normal backing and filling but regained its footing and has spent the afternoon in the green, bringing CAD and NOK along for the ride.
US index trading has also been mixed today with traders trying to figure out what to make of what we have seen so far. Although strong subscriber growth at Netflix enabled it to soar more than 15% to a new all-time high, its earnings miss due to the higher USD has cast a cloud over earnings season leaving traders wondering who else could see results depressed by currency action.
Heading into the weekend, it's a quiet day for Asia Pacific news but inflation reports for the Eurozone, US and Canada may be active on inflation reports that could indicate whether the oil price crash is still impacting inflation and how much flexibility central banks have to take needed actions. The UK employment report could have an impact on GBP as it’s one of the last big data announcements due before next month’s UK election.
Schlumberger $1.06 vs street $0.91, sales $10.25B vs street $10.40B, expects US exploration spending to drop 30% this year.
American Express $1.48 vs street $1.36
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US jobless claims 294K vs street 280K
US housing starts 926K vs street 1,040K
US building permits 1,039K vs street 1,081K
US Philadelphia Fed 7.5 vs street 6.0
US natural gas 63 BCF vs street 53 BCF
Upcoming significant announcements include:
10:30 am AEST Singapore electronic exports street 2.0%
9:30 am BST UK jobless claims street (29K)
9:30 am BST UK rolling 3M employment change street 170K
9:30 am BST UK unemployment rate street 5.6%
9:30 am BST UK average weekly earnings street 1.8%
10:00 am BST Eurozone consumer prices street (0.1%)
10:00 am BST Eurozone core CPI street 0.6%
8:30 am EDT US consumer prices street 0.0%
8:30 am EDT US core CPI (ex food and energy) street 1.7%
8:30 am EDT US real average weekly earnings previous 2.6%
8:30 am EDT Canada consumer prices street 1.0%
8:30 am EDT Canada core CPI street 2.1%
8:30 am EDT Canada retail sales street 0.5%
8:30 am EDT Canada retail ex auto street 0.7%
10:00 am EDT US consumer sentiment street 94.0
11:00 am EDT US leading index street 0.3%
1:00 pm EDT US Baker Hughes drill rig count previous 988