t was a lethargic day for US stock markets. There wasn’t anything huge in the way of economic or corporate news, so traders spent the day digesting Fed Chair Yellen’s big signal from Friday that the Fed is considering an interest rate increase next week. Political developments centred around wiretapping allegations against former president Obama, a new immigration ban on several countries and talks in Congress over how to repeal and replace Obamacare.
US factory orders and the durable goods revision both beat the street but with markets having run up so much already on the promise of business friendly promises from the Trump administration, good news appears to be priced in already and it wouldn’t take much to send them tumbling back the other way. Today, traders got a reminder that there are a number of potential priorities and distractions that could take the President’s attention away from the economy. Also, as we move past the big pronouncements stage into budgeting and implementation, some traders may be starting to take profits off the table.
After a midday bounce, markets have been turning downward late in the afternoon sending bearish momentum toward today’s Asia Pacific trading session. The main event today is the RBA decision but this could end up being a non-event. The economy doesn’t seem to be doing well enough or poorly enough to warrant a change in interest rates. Meanwhile, the dollar hovering near $0.7500 and the middle of the trading range that has dominated the last several months suggests we may not see aggressive talk on the currency either. One thing that could change sentiment would be if Governor Lowe decides to express any concern about the slowing Chinese economy or about Australia potentially getting sideswiped by changing US policies on trade as Bank of Canada Governor Poloz did earlier this year.
Trade in general may also attract attention from some traders with trade balances due for the US and Canada later today and China tomorrow.
There have been no major economic announcements after the US close today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US factory orders 1.2% vs street 1.0%
US durable goods update revised up to 2.0% from 1.8%, street had been expecting a downward revision to 1.0%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
9:30 am AEDT Australia construction PMI previous 47.7
2:30 pm AEDT Australia RBA Interest Rate 1.50% no change expected
12:00 am GMT UK same store sales street (0.2%) vs prev (0.6%)
8:30 am EST Canada trade balance street $0.75B
8:30 am EST US trade balance
10:00 am EST Canada Ivey PMI previous 52.3
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