oting Day brought another advance in US stocks continuing their relief rally, although upward momentum faded into the close with some traders wary about getting caught offside by the results. MXN also picked up steam suggesting some traders are anticipating a Clinton win. Gold and JPY remained under pressure while resource currencies like CAD NZD and AUD rallied indicating traders have started to wade back into risk markets tentatively.
It has been a long, bitter campaign between two very different viewpoints on how to go forward. Recent polls have Hillary Clinton with a slight lead but within the margin of error and losing momentum to Donald Trump. This feels a lot like the Brexit campaign last spring. It has turned out to be a lot closer than many would have expected and the potential for an upset Trump win is very real.
Last night I was watching coverage of some of the last campaign events. Hillary Clinton was in Pennsylvania, a state she should have locked up months ago. To get a enough people in the crowd to show on TV, that many people out she needed both Obamas, Springsteen and Bon Jovi to generate interest. Meanwhile Trump has been on offence, campaigning in what have been rock solid Democratic states like Michigan. It feels like a realignment is coming. Either side could come out on top but the tide has been turning toward Trump lately.
Monday's market action showed the street is still favouring stability over change with many traders speculating on a Clinton win. If she does win, stocks could stage another rally, gold could sell off and the Mexican Peso would likely soar. Stocks may only get so far, however as the US Dollar would also likely rally with a Clinton win setting the stage for a Fed rate hike in December.
If Donald Trump wins, uncertainty over what he may do would likely spark a rally in gold and a plunge in the Mexican Peso. As with Brexit, stocks could fall initially but then bounce later this week as the USD would likely also fall with traders speculating Trump related volatility could take a December rate hike off the table (it would only be a postponement though as Trump has criticized the Fed for keeping rates low).
There is also a small chance of a tie or a contested election that leads to recounts, like the Florida fiasco of 2000 which took weeks and a Supreme Court decision to sort out. That situation would also create uncertainty with markets reacting similar to a Trump win. Because the winner could go back and forth for a while, a contested result could spark more volatility for longer. In November of 2000 for example, the Dow fell over 5% while the election was being contested.
The markets feel like a coiled spring ready to move significantly with the direction depending on who wins the election. This brings risks but also opportunities. It's not the time to be complacent, it's time to be prepared for whatever happens.
There have been no major announcements after the US close today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Canada housing starts 192K vs street 195K vs previous 220K
UK same store sales 1.7% vs street 0.6%
UK industrial production 0.3% vs street 0.8%
UK manufacturing production 0.2% vs street (0.1%)
Germany industrial production 1.2% vs street 2.0%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
Times the Polls are Scheduled to Close in the Largest and key Battleground States
6:00 pm EST / 3:00 pm PST Polls close in Indiana
7:00 pm EST / 4:00 pm PST Polls close in part of Florida, Georgia, Virginia and New Hampshire
7:30 pm EST / 4:30 pm PST Polls close in Ohio and North Carolina
8:00 pm EST / 5:00 pm PST Polls close in Michigan, Pennsylvania and part of Texas
9:00 pm EST / 6:00 pm PST Polls close in New York, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado,
Arizona, New Mexico
10:00 pm EST / 7:00 pm PST Polls close in Nevada
11:00 pm EST / 8:00 pm PST Polls close in California, Washington, Oregon and Hawaii, Winner likely to be clear by now or shortly after unless it’s extremely close. Trump needs to be ahead by now as west coast polling solidly in support of Clinton.
1:00 am EST / 10:00 pm PST Last polls in Alaska close
10:30 am AEDT Australia consumer confidence previous 102.4
12:30 pm AEDT China consumer prices street 2.1%
12:30 pm AEDT China producer prices street 0.9%
9:30 am GMT UK trade balance street (£3.9B)
10:00 am GMT Greece industrial production previous (0.3%)
10:30 am EST US DOE Crude oil inventories street 1.5 mmbbls
10:30 am EST US DOE Gasoline inventories street (1.75 mmbbls)
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