73% av ikke-profesjonelle kunder taper penger når de handler i CFD-er. Du bør vurdere om du har råd til å ta den høye risikoen for å tape pengene dine.

Nyheter

US Oil Production – Ray Of Hope

US Oil Production – Ray Of Hope

By Ric Spooner, Chief Market Analyst, CMC Markets Australia At the end of the day, cuts in US oil production are far more likely to bring some stability to prices than any agreement between Russia; Saudi or Venezuela. We might just be starting to see some movement on this front. US oil production Last week, US oil production fell to 9.1 million barrels a day. That’s back to where it was in mid-October and down 1.4% from the January high of 9.24m. It’s probably a bit early to call this a trend but it’s worth keeping an eye on Recent estimates are that capital expenditure by major US oil companies this year will be half the levels of 2015. The market has been wrong about capital expenditure and production cuts so far. Improvements in productivity have stopped a big drop in the numbers of oil rigs flowing through to deeper production cuts. However, production is now down 0.5m barrels a day from the peak last April. The really large capex cuts now planned should flow through to deeper production cuts this year Daily US oil production Source: Bloomberg US oil inventories and surplus It’s important to see any US production cuts in context of course. Significant cuts are needed just to stop the rot. Inventories continue to grow. They were up 3.5m to a record 507.6m barrels last week. To make matters worse, we are moving into a period of seasonal weakness in demand between February and May. The International Energy Agency estimates that the global oil production surplus is around 1.9m barrels a day. Demand is expected to grow 1.2m barrels a day this year but Iran will be adding to supply. US production probably needs to fall to at least 8.5m barrels to start stabilizing prices. US oil inventories Source: Bloomberg Market reaction – relief While markets have been wrong about US production cuts so far, they are still expecting them, in fact counting on them starting to come through in coming months. Even though cuts are expected, it’s likely we will see some relief when if we finally begin to see evidence of more meaningful amounts coming off the table. Risk premiums could be reduced, especially in equity markets where oil markets and related bad debt problems have been a significant source of concern.


CMC Markets er en ‘execution-only service’ leverandør. Dette materialet (uansett om det uttaler seg om meninger eller ikke) er kun til generell informasjon, og tar ikke hensyn til dine personlige forhold eller mål. Ingenting i dette materialet er (eller bør anses å være) økonomiske, investeringer eller andre råd som avhengighet bør plasseres på. Ingen mening gitt i materialet utgjør en anbefaling fra CMC Markets eller forfatteren om at en bestemt investering, sikkerhet, transaksjon eller investeringsstrategi. Denne informasjonen er ikke utarbeidet i samsvar med regelverket for investeringsanalyser. Selv om vi ikke uttrykkelig er forhindret fra å opptre før vi har gitt dette innholdet, prøver vi ikke å dra nytte av det før det blir formidlet.

Finanstilsynets standardiserte risikoadvarsel: CFDer er komplekse finansielle instrumenter og investeringer i disse innebærer høy risiko for å tape penger raskt, grunnet gearing. 73% av ikke-profesjonelle kunder taper penger når de handler i slike produkter med denne tilbyderen. Du bør vurdere om du forstår hvordan CFDer fungerer og om du har råd til å ta den høye risikoen for å tape pengene dine.