ields on US treasury bonds erased early gains and closed lower on Tuesday spurring a move lower in European yields on Wednesday which provided a little calm after a turbulent start to the week. Without the menace of higher government bond yields, stronger growth figures in Europe are helping lift market sentiment and setting up for a higher US stock market open.
The biggest five Eurozone countries posted growth in the first quarter of 2015, a non-too-frequent occurrence recently with the likes of Italy and France regularly seeing contraction. France and Italy in fact, beat growth estimates while Germany surprisingly missed its own estimates. The out performance of Italy and France in the first quarter over Germany and indeed the UK has to be seen in the context of a slower annual pace of growth, Italy and France are coming off a lower base.
The risk is that the growth data confirms the “reflation” trade that triggered the selloff in German bunds and other EZ debt in the first place.
Stock market gains could be tempered by a round of disappointing Chinese data including a fall in retail sales and a smaller than expected increase in industrial production. The PBOC have just cut interest rates so another bout of monetary easing in China is probably not going to happen just yet.
Energy stocks may be supportive of major indices after oil prices moved back to the recent 2015 highs again on Tuesday after IEA lowered its US shale production forecasts.
US retail sales figures for April are expected to grow at a slower pace of 0.3% in April, raising more questions about the true health of the US economy and the kind of jobs being created that don’t trigger spending.
Futures suggest the:
will open 7 points higher at 2,106 with the
expected to open 60 points higher at 18,128 and the
24 points higher at 4,444.
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