US GDP drop doesn’t help struggling indices
Indices around the world have struggled to make headway once again with Australia’s S&P/ASX stuck below 5,555, and indices across Europe slipping a bit this morning. US indices are looking marginally higher but have been impacted a bit by weaker GDP data out this morning.
US GDP was revised down to (1.0%) this morning, indicating that the impact of winter storms was even worse than previously thought. That is clearly in the past, however, and with April data showing a strong rebound, traders may be more focused on May data, particularly next week’s PMI and payroll numbers, looking for signs the rebound has followed through deeper into the spring.
Overnight action in indices also suggests that although traders remain optimistic, bulls may be getting exhausted, and leading markets may be getting fully priced. For example, while traders remain hopeful that the ECB will do something to stimulate the economy at its meeting a week from today, the higher indices go, the risk that the central bank may not deliver on expectations already priced in grows.
In currencies today, USD has dropped back to the bottom of the pile on speculation the weak GDP print may make the Fed think twice about raising rates after tapering ends. As it is, some FOMC members have speculated recently that the central bank may stop rolling over maturing QE purchases (and shrink its balance sheet) before raising rates.
NZD and GBP also continue to underperform everything but USD as rate hike speculation in NZ and UK cools AUD is topping the charts with traders responding positively to a strong Australian retail sales report.
Gold and silver remain in retreat along with CHF as capital continues to come out of defensive havens. We could see some action in energy markets later this morning with both crude oil and natural gas inventories out today due to the holiday earlier this week. Tonight JPY could be active with a number of major indicators due from Japan.
Apple confirmed that it has agreed to purchase Beats Music and Beats Entertainment for $3B as had been rumoured for some time now.
CIBC $2.17 vs street $2.01, raises dividend 2.0%
Costco $1.07 vs street $1.09
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
US GDP update (1.0%) vs street (0.5%) vs previous 0.1%
US jobless claims 300K vs street 318K
Japan retail sales (4.4%) vs street (3.3%)
Australia new home sales 2.9% vs previous 0.2%
Australia Q1 private capex (4.2%) vs street (1.5%)
Spain GDP update 0.5% vs street 0.6%
Economic reports due later today include:
10:00 am EDT US pending home sales street (8.8%)
10:30 am EDT US natural gas storage street 110 BCF
11:00 am EDT US crude oil inventories street 0.5 mmbbls
11:00 am EDT US gasoline inventories street (0.2 mmbbls)