US markets shrugged off political uncertainty and staged a 0.6% rebound on Tuesday. A much stronger than expected consumer confidence report combined with positive manufacturing news in the form of investment in Michigan at Ford and a strong Richmond Fed report gave the bulls a boost today.
Most sectors traded higher on the day with Financials, Materials, Energy and Industrials leading the charge. WTI crude oil gained 1.4% but could be volatile over the next several hours between the API and DOE inventory reports. The oil price rally boosting energy stocks also propelled the S&P/TSX and FTSE to 0.7% gains on the day. Germany’s DAX was even stronger rallying for a 1.3% gain and closing at its highest level in about two years. Copper bounced back with a 1.3% gain while gold consolidated Monday’s rally near $1,250. a
Canadian stocks may also be benefitting from comments out of Bank of Canada Governor Poloz. He indicated that the oil sector contraction appears to be behind Canada, and indicated he sees the Toronto area economy growing rapidly boosting house prices (????????? Clearly he spends too much time in Ottawa). He also indicated that downside risks remain until US trade policy becomes clearer. The Canadian Dollar held steady after the speech reflecting no changes to monetary policy
Positive US economic data and comments from Fed members helped to shore up support for the US Dollar after a big tumble, but the Dollar Index remains below the key 100.00 barrier. Fed Chair Yellen didn't say much about monetary policy, but Vice Chair Fischer indicated he thinks two more hikes this year would be about right. Fed Governor Powell speaks later today.
For the next 24 hours, focus now turns to the UK and its plans to trigger Article 50 which could spark more trading action in GBP pairs and the FTSE. Sterling fell today after the Scottish Parliament voted to call for another independence referendum but this was expected and the federal government doesn’t have to oblige them. Traders may focus today on any details related to the UK’s negotiating stance while awaiting the EU’s initial response which is expected by Friday.
It looks like it could be a mixed day for Asia Pacific trading. The rebound in US indices and commodity prices has attracted interest to Australia stocks and sent positive momentum toward the Nikkei
and Hang Seng, but NZD and SGD have been struggling. So far there has been no reaction in oil to the API report but energy stocks could remain active on the oil rebound, while the Japanese retail sales report may also impact intraday trading.
There have been no major corporate reports after the US close today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US API crude oil inventories 1.9 mmbbls
US adv goods trade balance ($64.8B) vs street ($66.4B)
US consumer confidence 125.6 vs street 114.0
US Richmond Fed manufact 22 vs street 15
Scotland Parliament votes 69-59 to call for a second independence referendum between
The autumn of 2018 and the spring of 2019
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
10:50 am AEDT Japan retail sales street 0.7%
TBA UK Government to trigger Article 50 and start the Brexit process
11:00 am GMT UK PM May weekly question time in the House of Commons
9:20 am EDT FOMC Evans speaking
11:30 am EDT FOMC Rosengren speaking
1:15 pm EDT FOMC Williams speaking
10:00 am EDT US pending home sales street 2.5%
10:30 am EDT US DOE crude oil inventories street 2.0 mmbbls vs previous 4.9 mmbbls
10:30 am EDT US DOE gasoline inventories street (2.0 mmbbls)