t's Friday the 13th and the Friday before the long weekend in the US, but it's overnight and upcoming developments that could make the most waves in the markets.
This week it has become clear that Trump driven trades were overdone late last year. With Inauguration Day a week away, the reality that he may not be able to do as much as quickly as traders had been hoping has started to sink in. The realization that it's not all sunshine and lollipops and the road ahead could be bumpy with twists and surprises has sparked significant intraday swings
and trading opportunities that may continue today.
Coming off a wild day for currency trading, forex markets are mixed this morning. Major currencies like EUR, GBP and JPY are on the rise against USD, along with resource currencies like CAD and AUD. Gold is down slightly along with metal prices.
Stock markets are steady with US index futures stabilizing at lower levels following a selloff and partial bounce Thursday. The FTSE is up 0.25% while the Dax is up 0.5%. Australian stocks fell 0.8% in an ominous omen for Canada trading today as it is also a resource heavy index.
Commodity prices have been taking it on the chin overnight, dragging on resource stocks. WTI crude oil is down 1.0% while copper is down 0.8%. Disappointing Chinese trade figures crushed expectations of higher resource demand that had been supporting recent commodity gains.
Crude oil may remain active through the day. This morning the focus is on OPEC amid reports Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have cut production more than promised and Russia apparently has started to cut as well. This could be offset, however, by expectations higher prices could bring US shale production back. Reports this week have suggested US oilpatch investment is likely to increase.
We could see activity around this week's Baker Hughes active rig count report. A seasonal increase in drilling is normal this time of year as some locations can only be accessed when the ground is frozen. Whether more or fewer rigs are operating compared with the same week a year ago could be more important and potentially spark trading action.
The financial sector was one of the big driving forces behind the late 2016 market rally and expectations have grown dramatically. Today bank earnings season kicks off. Results from Bank of America, PNC Bank and Blackrock have all beaten expectations so far with Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase due shortly. One negative, however, was a big miss on revenues at Bank of America. Whether the results spark adding to bullish positions profit taking against news may indicate how traders are looking to act this earnings season. It may also indicate if the stock market advance on 20,000 for the Dow has any legs left or not.
US retail sales are also out today which may indicate if the post-election honeymoon for spending continued through the holidays. Note some retailers, most notably Macy's have already put out profit warnings so there is downside risk. Producer prices may give an indication of inflation pressures facing the Fed.
Bank of America $0.40 vs street $0.38, revenues $19.9B below street $20.8B
PNC Bank $1.97 vs street $1.85
Blackrock $5.14 vs street $5.02, 9% dividend increase
Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase due today
China trade balance $40.8B vs street $47.5B
China exports (6.1%) vs street (4.0%) vs previous (1.6%)
China imports 4.2% vs street 3.0% vs previous 6.7%
Singapore retail sales 1.1% vs street 1.7%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
8:30 am EST US retail sales street 0.7% vs previous 0.1%
8:30 am EST US retail ex auto street 0.5%
8:30 am EST US producer prices street 1.6%
8:30 am EST US core PPI street 1.5%
9:00 am EST Canada existing home sales
9:30 am EST FOMC Harker speaking
10:00 am EST US consumer sentiment street 98.5
1:00 pm EST US Baker Hughes rig count previous 665 year ago 664
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