t has been another big evening and morning for trading around the world with Greece giving some of the top headline space over to China
Despite another round of supportive measures from the Government, Chinese indices plunged again overnight taking out their March pre-rally lows and nearing their 52-week lows dating back to November. Crude oil and copper are still down on the day although their pace of decline has slowed to about 1%.
While the Hang Seng is now nearly as oversold as it was overbought back in April, the massive shocks and market moves of the last several months and the new trading restrictions mean that it could take for traders to figure out the appropriate levels for indices meaning that markets there could remain volatile for some time.
The crisis in Greece and the EU hasn’t gone away although EUR and European indices are staging a bit of a relief rally today. Greece asking for a new 3-year support program from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and promising to implement tax and pension reforms next week has been seen as a start. Rumours Greece was prepariong to issue IOUs a possible first step toward the return of the Drachma were quickly denied.
With Germany and several other countries still opposed to any kind of debt haircut, however, it still remains difficult to see how a deal to keep Greece in the Eurozone can get done. The bank holiday has been extended to Friday with Eurogroup and EU summit meetings scheduled for the weekend. So even though the effect of Greece on markets has faded a bit today, it could roar back at any time.
US markets are heading for a lower open today and appear likely to give back yesterday’s afternoon gains. Minutes from the last Fed meeting are due out this afternoon. Although there was lots of additional information released from the last meeting, the minutes could still be seen as important source of clues on future monetary trends. In particular, traders may focus on indications (if any) on whether members discussed growing overseas turmoil (Greece, China, Puerto Rico) as some traders have started to speculate in recent days that these or other crises could destabilize economies enough to keep the Fed on hold into 2016.
With all of the focus on big macro crises lately, corporate news has been totally overshadowed. That could change in the coming days as earnings season picks up with Alcoa kicking things off after the US close tonight. There haven't been very many profit warnings so it will be interesting to see what impacts the oil rebound, USD correction and choppy economy had on earnings this time around.
There have been no major corporate announcements this morning
Significant announcements released overnight include:
UK budget highlights 2015 GDP forecast cut to 2.4% from 2.5%
2016 GDP forecast unchanged at 2.3%
2015/16 deficit to GDP forecast at 3.7%
Budget surplus expected in 2019/20
2015/16 Debt/GDP forecast 80.3%
£8.0B in new funding for national health service
£12.0B in welfare cuts to continue as planned
Corporation tax to fall to 19% in 2017
New 8% surcharge on banks starts Jan 1 2016
Public sector pay increases 1% next four years
UK BRC shop prices (1.3%) vs previous (1.9%)
UK Halifax house prices 9.6% vs street 8.3%
China new stock measures China securities finance corp to increase stock purchases with PBOC support
Almost 50% of stocks now halted due to volatility
State owned companies and major shareholders and managers banned from selling shares. Companies, managers and directors encouraged to buy own shares
Upcoming significant announcements include:
10:00 am EDT US DOE crude oil inventories street 0K
2:00 pm EDT US FOMC minutes
4:00 pm EDT Alcoa earnings street $0.22
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