It’s looking to be a split week for market news. The week starts off with Europe in focus. Spain’s Catalonia region is scheduled to hold an independence referendum on Sunday but the federal government is trying to block it, trying to arrest regional leaders and close polling stations. The situation has become such a mess that there is a strong potential this could spark social unrest and if a vote is held, whatever side loses is likely to dispute the results due to all the interference from Madrid.

Sunday developments could spark significant swings in the Euro and the IBEX to start the week. Manufacturing and Service PMI reports from across the continent may have a smaller impact. Later in the week, ECB minutes are due which could attract attention from traders trying to figure out if the ECB will be ready to announce a resumption to QE tapering later this month or not.  

As the week progresses, the spotlight moves across the Atlantic to the US and Canada. A number of key data reports are due later in the week including US ADP payrolls Wednesday, trade balances Thursday (which take on added significance with NAFTA talks moving into critical phases), ramping up toward the key US nonfarm payrolls and Canada Labour Fore Survey reports on Friday. USD and CAD could be particularly active around these reports which could influence policy thinking at the FOMC and the Bank of Canada.  

Economic/Political news (North America time):

All Week                       China closed for National Day Golden Week holidays

Sunday evening         Spain Catalonia independence referendum results

                                    Manufacturing PMI for Japan, Australia, China

                                    Japan Tankan manufacturers survey

                                    Australia inflation

Monday                       Manufacturing PMI for US, Canada, UK, Germany, etc

                                    US construction spending

                                     FOMC Kaplan speaking

Monday evening           Australia RBA decision     1.50% no change expected

Tuesday                       UK construction PMI

Tuesday evening           Service PMI for Australia, Japan, etc

Wednesday                  US ADP payrolls

                                    FOMC Yellen speaking

                                     Service PMI for US, UK, Germany, etc.

Thursday                      US and Canada trade balance

                                    US factory orders

                                    FOMC Williams George and Harker speaking

                                   ECB meeting minutes

Friday                          US nonfarm payrolls

                                    Canada employment, Ivey PMI

                                    FOMC Dudley, Kaplan, Bostic speaking

                                    Moodys to issue rating on US sovereign debt no change expected        

Saturday                       FOMC Rosengren speaking

 

Earnings Reports and Corporate Events:

Wednesday                  Pepsico

Thursday                      Costco

 

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