69% av ikke-profesjonelle kunder taper penger når de handler i CFD-er. Du bør vurdere om du har råd til å ta den høye risikoen for å tape pengene dine.


Traders look to nonfarm payrolls as falling US energy inventories offset OPEC

Traders look to nonfarm payrolls as falling US energy inventories offset OPEC

Stocks in Europe and North America plus crude oil had their ups and downs Thursday but finished near flat by the finish of a busy day for economic news. Crude oil news ended up dominating the day. The OPEC meeting finished with no new production cap with the cartel still unable to get its act together and rapidly losing relevance. Saudi Arabia apparently wanted one but Iran wanted caps on a country by country bases. Although these fissures are not new and should not have come as a surprise to anyone, crude oil slipped back to test $47.50 support following the meeting. Oil then turned right back around though with Brent taking another run at $50 and WTI trading above $49 after weekly US crude oil and gasoline inventories. The news reminded traders that the gains made in the oil market since the Qatar meeting fell apart in April have been driven mainly by the improving supply/demand balance in the US, not by anything OPEC countries have done. News flow for Asia Pacific traders is likely to be dominated today by service PMI reports. Traders may also continue to focus on tomorrow’s main event, US nonfarm payrolls. This is one of the last major data reports before the big Fed interest rate decision on June 15th. Today Dallas Fed President Kaplan continued the trend of Fed speakers hinting toward a rate hike at the June or July meeting which has essentially been priced in by stocks and USD. The street is expecting payrolls to increase by 160K the same as last month. ADP payrolls rose by 173K as expected with a 10K upward revision to last month. I think the Verizon strike could have a distortive effect on payrolls so I’m thinking 145K with a 10K upward revision to last month. I think it would take a major miss like below 100K to knock the Fed off course and a big spike like 300K plus to get them to consider more than 2 hikes this year. Other aspects of the payrolls report to watch include the unemployment rate which is expected to come in at 4.9%, and average hourly earnings which are expected at 2.5%. 2% plus growth in wages could keep the pressure on the Fed to raise rates soon to keep from falling behind the curve on inflation. Comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard later in the morning could have just as significant an impact on Fed speculation as nonfarm payrolls. She is the most dovish of the permanent voting governors, so her comments along with those by Chicago Fed President Evans earlier in the day could be seen as the Fed doves’ last stand. It would be too much of a leap to expect her to jump on the hawkish bandwagon, but neutral comments similar to those made by FOMC Chair Yellen last Friday would suggest limited opposition to a pending interest rate increase Corporate News Gap May same store sales (6.0%) vs street (8.5%) Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: Singapore PMI 49.8 vs street 49.7 Singapore electronics sector 49.1 vs previous 49.5 ECB meeting decision no change to interest rates or QE as expected OPEC meeting result no new cap on production US ADP payrolls 173K as expected, previous revised up to 166K from 156K US jobless claims 267K vs street 270K US natural gas 82 BCF as expected US DOE oil inventories (1.3 mmbbls) vs street (2.5 mmbbls) and previous (4.2 mmbbls) US DOE gasoline inventories (1.4 mmbbls) vs street (0.3 mmbbls) vs previous 2.0 mmbbls Spain unemployment change (120K) vs street (104K) vs previous (83K) UK construction PMI 51.2 vs street 52.0 Eurozone producer prices (4.4%) vs street (4.1%) Upcoming significant economic announcements include: (Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore) 10:00 am AEST Japan labour cash earnings street 0.9% vs previous 1.4% 11:00 am AEST NZ ANZ commodity prices previous (0.8%) 8:30 am BST Sweden industrial production street 2.5% 10:00 am BST Eurozone retail sales street 2.1% 8:30 am EDT US nonfarm payrolls street 160K 8:30 am EDT US nonfarm payrolls revision previous 160K 8:30 am EDT US private payrolls street 150K 8:30 am EDT US unemployment rate street 4.9% 8:30 am EDT US average hourly earnings street 2.5% 8:30 am EDT US trade balance street ($41.0B) 8:30 am EDT Canada trade balance street ($2.5B) 10:00 am EDT US factory orders street 1.9% 3:45 am EDT FOMC Evans speaking 12:30 pm EDT FOMC Brainard speaking Service PMI reports: 9:30 am AEST Australia previous 49.7 11:45 am AEST China Caixin previous 50.8 12:00 pm AEST Japan Nikkei previous 48.9 1:00 pm AEST Singapore Nikkei previous 49.4 3:00 pm AEST India Nikkei previous 53.7 9:30 am BST UK street 52.3 8:55 am BST Germany street 55.2 8:50 am BST France street 51.8 8:15 am BST Spain street 54.0 8:45 am BST Italy street 51.5 9:45 am EDT US Markit street 51.4% 9:45 am EDT US ISM street 55.3

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Finanstilsynets standardiserte risikoadvarsel: CFDer er komplekse finansielle instrumenter og investeringer i disse innebærer høy risiko for å tape penger raskt, grunnet gearing. 69% av ikke-profesjonelle kunder taper penger når de handler i slike produkter med denne tilbyderen. Du bør vurdere om du forstår hvordan CFDer fungerer og om du har råd til å ta den høye risikoen for å tape pengene dine.