Sometimes it’s what doesn’t happen that’s important. US retail sales, often a popular measure for traders, came out this morning and nothing happened. The results themselves were just fine, showing good growth, but were in line with expectations. This indicates that positive economic results have already been fully priced into stock markets and that they remain vulnerable to a correction unless even better news comes along to prop them up.
Overseas markets have been steady overnight with China and Australia slightly lower while Japan and Europe are trading slightly higher. The FTSE
and GBP are up slightly as new poll results show the No side with a slight lead in the Scottish Referendum race but it remains too close to call and may keep trading in UK sensitive markets active right through next week.
USD also appears to be consolidating its gains ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting having become overbought against a number of markets. A good example of how oversold many currencies and commodities have become against USD is today’s action in EUR which is rebounding slightly despite ECB President Draghi indicating the upcoming asset purchase plan is going to be big and that he wants to take the ECB balance sheet back up to where it was in 2012, completely unwinding the stealth taper of the last few years.
Crude oil is holding on to yesterday’s rebound but gold continues to drift lower along with copper. AUD, the S&P/ASX and the Hang Seng all continue to slide into this weekend’s Chinese retail sales and industrial reports. NZD, on the other hand, has finally stabilized a bit on improved NZ manufacturing PMI and inflation reports. CAD is drifting lower at a similar pace to SEK and JPY.
Through the day we may see traders position for the major news on tap for next week which starts with this weekend’s China data and then ramps toward the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, Scotland referendum on Thursday and Friday’s expected launches of the iPhone6 in stores and Alibaba shares in the stock market.
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
US retail sales 0.6% as expected
US retail ex auto 0.3% as expected
Canada house prices previous 4.9%
China new Yuan loans 702B vs street 700B
NZ manufacturing PMI 56.5 vs previous 53.0
NZ food prices 0.3% vs previous (0.7%)
South Korea unemployment 3.5% vs street 3.4%
South Korea interest rate 2.25% no change as expected
Japan industrial production (0.7%) vs previous (0.9%)
Spain consumer prices (0.5%) as expected
Italy industrial production (1.8%) vs street 0.1%
UK construction output 2.6% vs street 3.2%
Eurozone industrial production 2.2% vs street 1.4%
Economic reports due later today include:
9:55 am EDT US consumer confidence street 83.3
3:30pm AEST Sat China retail sales street 12.1%
3:30pm AEST Sat China industrial production street 8.8%
3:30 pm AEST China fixed assets street 16.9%