Super Bowl LI and the Markets: Brady’s big comeback win could be a bearish sign for stocks
Wow what an incredible game. Into the fourth quarter, it looked like Atlanta had it all locked up, but just like with Seattle two years ago, and with Peyton Manning last year, Tom Brady showed never to count out a big quarterback in the big game.
The Patriots record setting comeback, however, could be a bearish sign for the stock markets this year.
On average, US stocks have fallen 3.0% on average following New England’s four previous Super Bowl wins. In general, volatility in the markets has followed the team around including a 23% drop after they won in 2002 and a 38.5% drop after they lost in 2008.
The market doesn’t seem to like when AFC East teams win in general. The seven previous times the Super Bowl winner has come from that division, the average decline has been 10.7%. In contrast when an AFC team has lost in the Super Bowl the average gain has been 10.5%. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan may not be the only one smarting from last night’s big change in direction. Note the other AFC East teams are the New York Jets, Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins.
The last time Atlanta lost in the Super Bowl in 1999, the market peaked within a year and declined for the three following years. Could the market have peaked already this time?
The potential short-term gain, long-term pain from last year’s win by Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos may also overhang the markets this year,
Based on this I would not be surprised to see a market decline of 10-15% sometime during what could potentially be a highly volatile year for US stock markets.