oday’s press conference speech by ECB President Mario Draghi ignited strong market moves across Europe and North America. He indicated that the ECB plans to revisit its QE program in December when new staff forecasts are out, noted the economic recovery continues but downside risks remain, mentioned that staff have been asked to look into new policy options and that a cut to deposit rates was discussed at today’s meeting.
Overall the street has taken the press conference as highly dovish and suggesting more Europe stimulus would be on the way. While dovish talk out of the US, where the economy has been strong, has been greeted with suspicion lately, Europe’s struggles have been widely known for a long time, so an attempt for stimulus there was seen as a positive by traders.
European stocks soared on the news with the Dax rising 2.2%. US and UK markets also gained but at a slower pace with the Dow gaining 1.7% and the FTSE
gaining 0.4%. Stronger than expected earnings on balance also gave US indices a boost.
On the other hand, very strong UK retail sales held the FTSE back on speculation the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates is growing. This same speculation helped Sterling to outperform EUR.
Draghi’s comments also had a big impact on currency trading today. EUR fell 2% against USD and dragged other continental currencies down the drain with it, including CHF, SEK and NOK. USD shot upward on EUR’s decline. Gold was flat against the stronger USD but broke out to the upside against EUR. Stimulus talk helped to support commodities like copper and crude oil and send the resource dollars (NZD, CAD, and AUD) toward the top of the standings.
Overnight action has sent a lot of positive momentum toward today’s Asia Pacific trading session, but also could put pressure on Chinese officials to do more. We could see early catchup strength in stocks, but as the day progresses, focus may turn to flash PMI reports which give the first indication of how world economies have been acting into October.
Japan’s flash PMI could attract particular attention as it could show how much pressure the Bank of Japan may be under to ramp up stimulus as well. Despite indications from Governor Kuroda that further stimulus is unlikely, lingering stimulus speculation has held back JPY relative to USD. Singapore markets may also be active later in the day on the country’s consumer price inflation report.
MicroSoft $0.67 vs street $0.58, sales $21.6 vs street $20.7B
Google $7.35 vs street $7.20
Amazon.com $0.17 vs street ($0.13), sales $25.3B vs street $24.9B
Significant announcements released overnight include:
ECB meeting no change to interest rates or QE but asset purchase program to be reviewed in December along with forecasts
US jobless claims 259K vs street 265K
US continuing claims 2,170K vs stret 2,186K
US house prices 0.3% vs street 0.5%
US existing home sales 5.55M vs street 5.39M
US leading index (0.2%) vs street (0.1%)
US natural gas 81 BCF vs street 87 BCF vs previous 100 BCF
US Kansas City Fed (1) vs (9)
UK retail sales 6.5% vs street 4.8%
UK retail ex auto 5.9% vs street 4.7%
Canada retail ex auto 0.0% vs street 0.2%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
12:35 pm AEDT Japan flash manufacturing PMI street 50.5
4:00 pm AEDT Singapore consumer prices street (0.6%)
4:00 pm AEDT Singapore core CPI street 0.4%
8:00 am BST France flash manufacturing PMI street 50.2
8:00 am BST France flash service PMI street 51.7
8:30 am BST Germany flash manufacturing PMI street 51.7
8:30 am BST Germany flash service PMI street 53.9
9:00 am BST Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI street 51.7
9:00 am BST Eurozone flash service PMI street 53.5
9:00 am BST Poland unemployment rate street 9.9%
9:00 am BST Italy industrial orders previous 10.4%
10:00 am BST Italy retail sales previous 1`.7%
8:30 am EDT Canada consumer prices street 1.1%
8:30 am EDT Canada core CPI street 2.2%
9:45 am EDT US flash manufacturing PMI street 52.7
1:00 pm EDT US Baker Hughes drill rig count previous 787
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