Stocks retreat on renewed Grexit risk and refocus on Fed
Stock markets which had flown so high in the last two days in hope of a Greece deal, ignoring the signals sent by currency markets, have started to fall back to Earth today. Once again it appears that signs of progress had been premature as the creditor group rejected Greece’s Monday proposal and came back with a new list of demands of their own.
Considering that there had already been talk among members of Greek PM Tsipras’ Syriza party that the last proposal had gone too far and a mutiny was possible, a deal to resolve the crisis is looking increasingly unlikely once again. More meetings are scheduled for later today so who knows, this also could be another round of posturing before a compromise.
At this point Greek negotiations still look like they could go either way, but that once a decision is reached, markets could have a significant move in one direction or the other depending on what happens. This seems to have currency traders sitting on their hands today with the majors plus crude oil trading pretty much flat. A falling gold price offset by a rising Greek treasury yield highlights the current indecision among traders.
US markets had followed their European counterparts higher but at a more moderate pace, and likewise, US indices are following European markets lower today but at a smaller pace. Without the boost from Europe, Fed speculation which US stocks had ignored yesterday appears to be creeping back into the discussion. US indices have been sliding back as Q1 US GDP was revised up to a 0.2% decline, while consumer spending was revised upward to 2.1% above street expectations. This data supports FOMC Governor Powell’s comments from yesterday about the potential for two US rate hikes this year which sent the greenback soaring yesterday.
Later this morning, US crude oil inventories are due but that’s about it for scheduled news, so we may see Greece remain the main focus through today’s trading session. Market moving news and comments could pop up at any time, so it’s particularly important over the next few days for traders to remain nimble, use risk management technical like stop losses and be prepared to react to changes in direction.
Lennar $0.79 vs street $0.64
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US Q1 GDP update (0.2%) as expected vs previous (0.7%)
US Q1 personal consumption update 2.1% vs street 1.9%
US Q1 core PCE inflation update 0.8% as expected
Germany IFO bus climate 107.4 vs street 108.1
Germany IFO current assessment 113.1 vs street 114.1
Germany IFO expectations 102.0 vs street 102.4
France GDP 0.8% vs street 0.6%
Norway unemployment 4.2% as expected
China consumer sentiment 112.3 vs previous 111.1
Upcoming significant announcements include:
10:30 am EDT US crude oil inventories street (2.0 mmbbls)
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