Stocks and oil rally into a big day for economic data
Stock markets in North America and Europe snapped out of their doldrums Thursday led by gains in the energy and retailing sectors. Crude oil staged a particularly strong turnaround starting the day down over 1% and finishing up 4%. Early on the International Energy Agency’s forecast for slower demand growth in 2-17 weighed on Texas Tea but comments from Saudi Arabia opening the door to a side meeting among OPEC and non-OPEC producers about stabilizing the market at an energy conference in Algeria next month really turned things around. The big oil rally also boosted energy stocks and CAD.
Signs of a robust US consumer economy also helped to boost stocks today with Macy’s and Kohls gaining 16%-17% on the back of better than expected earnings reports. After the close, Nordstrom reported a blowout quarter. San Francisco Fed President Williams a non-voter indicated he still favours one rate increase this year, also a sign of a strong economy and positive corporate earnings environment.
The end of the week could see a flurry of trading with a number of major economic reports due from around the world. Chinese retail sales and industrial production is likely to be the focus for Asia Pacific traders today. New Zealand’s PMI report may also attract attention in the wake of yesterday’s post RBNZ decision volatility in NZD and mixed speculation on the timing of additional potential rate cuts.
In Europe, GDP and reports from across the continent may attract some attention while UK construction output may shed more light on the post-Brexit economy and whether the island nation is falling into a recession or not.
The US session may be impacted by the US retail sales report particularly amid such strong retailer earnings. Later in the day the oil price could be active around the weekly Baker Hughes rig count. Traders should note that we could see another increase but that the rise in activity in the summer is normal on a seasonal basis as the ground dries out and activity resumes following spring breakout shutdowns and road bans on equipment movement end. The recent bounce in activity from near 400 to 460 is relatively moderate and activity remains low considering that this time a year ago, about 880 rigs were in operation.
Nordstrom $0.67 vs street $0.56
Nvidia $0.40 vs street $0.37
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US jobless claims street 265K
US import prices street (4.3%)
US natural gas street 27 BCF
Canada new house prices previous 2.7%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
8:30 am AEST NZ Business PMI previous 57.7
8:45 am AEST NZ Q2 retail sales street 1.0% vs previous 0.8%
12:00 pm AEST China industrial production street 6.2%
12:00 pm AEST China retail sales street 10.5%
12:00 pm AEST China fixed assets street 8.9%
7:00 am BST Germany consumer prices street 0.4%
7:00 am BST Germany Q2 GDP street 1.4% vs previous 1.6%
8:00 am BST Spain consumer prices street (0.6%)
9:00 am BST Poland Q2 GDP street 3.3%
9:00 am BST Italy Q2 GDP street 0.8%
10:00 am BST Greece Q2 GDP street (1.8%) vs previous (1.3%)
10:00 am BST Eurozone Q2 GDP street 1.6%
10:00 am BST Eurozone industrial production street 0.7%
9:30 am BST UK construction output street (2.1%)
8:30 am EDT US retail sales street 0.4% vs previous 0.6%
8:30 am EDT US retail ex auto street 0.3%
8:30 am EDT US producer prices street 0.2%
8:30 am EDT US core PPI street 1.2%
8:30 am EDT Canada Teranet house prices previous 10.0%
10:00 am EDT US consumer sentiment street 91.5
1:00 pm EDT US Baker Hughes drill rigs previous 464
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