oday’s trading action so far has been focused mainly in commodities and currencies with stocks sitting in neutral overnight and into the morning.
Traders’ main focus so far today has been on UK markets with the Super Thursday series of announcements from the Bank of England. While the decision to keep rates and QE on hold came as no surprise, the 8-1 vote was seen as a bit disappointing as hawks had been hoping to see more dissenters. Comments that the bank remains on track for interest rate liftoff in Q2 of next year and a soft headline inflation forecast also disappointed those who had been speculating lately the timetable for rate hikes could be moved up.
GBP had been gaining in recent days on speculation of a more hawkish Bank of England, so this stay the course news has knocked Sterling back a bit today while the FTSE
is essentially flat.
In other currency action, NZD has been the top performer on the day while AUD has been sliding following today’s Australia jobs report. Although headline jobs increased, they were more weighted to part-time, and the unemployment rate was higher than expected. It appears following this news that we have been seeing unwinding in AUD-NZD trades which had favoured the Aussie in recent months.
CAD is holding steady against USD even though crude oil has fallen back under $45.00 for WTI and $50.00 for Brent overnight. The loonie has benefitted from yesterday’s not as bad as feared trade deficit and could be attracting speculation on tomorrow’s Canadian job numbers.
US stocks have been steady so far today with another flurry of earnings reports out overnight. Soft production guidance from Tesla Motors could have its shares in the spotlight today while in Canada the earnings related focus may be on the major insurance companies. In breaking news, a big dividend cut at Barrick Gold could also attract attention.
Tesla Motors ($0.48) vs street ($0.60) sales $1.20B vs street $1.18, 2015 production guidance 50-55K vehicles below street 55K
Prudential Financial $2.91 vs street $2.47
Tesoro $4.62 vs street $3.99
Sun Life $1.19 vs street $0.82
Manulife Financial $0.44 as expected
Great West Life $0.66 vs street $0.69
Barrick Gold $0.05 vs street $0.06, 60% dividend cut
Canadian Natural CFPS $1.37 vs street $1.29
BCE $0.87 as expected
WestJet pilots voted 55%-45% not to unionize
Significant announcements released overnight include:
UK interest rate and QE 0.50% and £375B no change expected, 8-1 vote in interest rate with one hawkish dissenter McCafferty on inflation risk
UK Bank of England inflation report still calling for first rate hike Q2 of 2016 and one in the second half of 2016 t0 1.00% by end of 2016
2015 GDP forecast raised to 2.8% from 2.5%
2015 wage growth forecast raised to 3.0% from 2.5%
Inflation expected to reach 2.0% within two years
UK Halifax house prices 7.9% vs street 8.3%
UK industrial production 1.5% vs street 2.2%
UK manufacturing production 0.5% vs street 0.4%
US jobless claims 270K vs street 272K
US Challenger layoffs 105K vs previous 45K
Germany factory orders 7.2% vs street 5.2%
Greece unemployment rate 25.0% vs street 25.5%
Australia employment change 38K vs street 10K vs previous 7K
Australia full-time jobs 12K vs previous 25K
Australia part-time jobs 26K vs previous (17K)
Australia unemployment rate 6.3% vs street 6.1%
Japan leading index 107.2 vs street 106.9
Upcoming significant announcements include:
3:00 pm BST UK NIESR GDP estimate previous 0.7%
10:30 am EDT US natural gas street 42 BCF
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