Santa Claus Rally gains momentum; can oil keep its rally going?
Yesterday’s strong finish to US trading has continued through Asia Pacific trading overnight and on into this morning’s UK and European trading with major indices across the pond posting 1% plus gains on the day so far. US indices are also trading higher but rising more slowly as traders await this morning’s economic reports.
It’s the last full day of trading before the Christmas Break and it could be a busy won with a number of economic reports on the way. Crude oil is in particular focus today with traders looking to DOE inventories for confirmation of last night’s big API drawdown with the weekly Baker Hughes rig count also on the way. Overnight, WTI has been consolidating yesterday’s big rebound above $35.00 while gasoline has been picking up heading into its own report.
Canadian stocks and CAD may be particularly active today not only on the oil related news but also with Canada monthly GDP and retail sales on the way which could give an indication on how well or how poorly Canada’s transition to a lower oil / lower loonie environment is proceeding.
There is also a flurry of mid-tier US numbers on the way that could keep their pot simmering including personal income, durable goods, new home sales and more.
Over the rest of the year, its fairly quiet for news except for Japan who is scheduled to report its main monthly economic numbers over the next several days. This could spark some trading activity in JPY pairs. We return in January to a busy week for news headlined by manufacturing PMI and US payrolls.
There have been no major corporate announcements so far today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US API crude oil inventories (3.6 mmbbls) vs street (0.6 mmbbls)
UK GDP update 2.1% vs street 2.3%
France GDP update 1.1% vs street 1.2%
Norway unemployment rate 4.6% as expected
Poland unemployment rate 9.7% as expected
Italy retail sales 1.8% vs street 1.7%
NZ trade balance ($779M) vs street ($810M)
Singapore consumer prices (0.8%) vs street (0.7%)
Singapore core CPI 0.2% vs street 0.4%
Upcoming significant announcements include:
8:30 am EST Canada Oct GDP street 0.0%
8:30 am EST Canada retail sales street 0.4%
8:30 am EST Canada retail ex auto street 0.4%
8:30 am EST US personal income street 0.2%
8:30 am EST US personal spending street 0.3%
8:30 am EST US core PCE inflation street 1.3%
8:30 am EST US durable goods street (0.6%)
8:30 am EST US durables ex transport street 0.0%
10:00 am EST US new home sales street 505K
10:00 am EST US consumer sentiment street 92.0
10:30 am EST US DOE crude oil inventories street 1.2 mmbbls
10:30 am EST US gasoline inventories street 1.3 mmbbls
1:00 pm EST US Baker Hughes drill rig count previous 709
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