It’s been a wild night and morning for US indices with big reactions to major news developments.
Twitter has been trading sharply lower overnight after subscriber growth slowed and failed to keep pace with sales growth, raising concerns about the company’s longer term potential. This has sent even more traders who were already skittish about high value momentum plays running for the exits. This has dragged on sentiment toward technology and it appears unlikely the Garmin surprise will be enough to offset the Twitter disappointment.
US indices had been lower into the early morning and have been very active in the last hour. Indices spiked on the positive ADP Payrolls report then turned and plunged following the very disappointing US GDP report.
This sets the stage for today’s Fed meeting. Although USD has been steadily sinking through the morning and fell off a cliff following the GDP report, it appears unlikely that the Fed will back away from another widely expected $10B taper.
Rather, the weak GDP report will likely be blamed on all the weather disruptions and discounted as a one off event, particularly with employment and regional data indicating the economy has now shrugged off the winter and roared into spring. We may see the Fed take a dovish tone in its comments and likely will indicate no plans for when interest rates may start to rise in an attempt to avoid the fiasco that followed the last meeting over member projections.
NOK is climbing today boosted by better than expected Norwegian retail sales. Data out of Europe was generally positive led by improved employment numbers out of Germany and Italy but European markets have been mixed in response.
CAD is holding on to yesterday’s gains with USDCAD consolidating below $1.1000 as Canadian GDP for February basically matched January and beat expectations. Clearly the main impact on Canada’s economy from storms was mainly in December while the US continued to have problems through the winter, particularly in areas that aren’t used to dealing with storms.
Japanese data overnight was disappointing particularly manufacturing PMI which dropped back into contraction territory, but the Nikkei
and JPY held steady as the Bank of Japan stayed the course in interest rates and QE.
Even with all the news we have seen so far today, things are really just getting started with lots of big news on the way that could keep trading active right through to the weekend. This afternoon brings the FOMC decision at 2:00 pm ET followed by manufacturing PMI overnight and tomorrow morning leading into Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls.
Twitter adjusted EPS $0.00 vs street ($0.03), sales $250M up 119% over year, active users 255 million up 25% over year. Next Q sales guidance $270-$280 million EBITDA $25-30 million, FY sales guidance $1.20-$1.25 billion EBITDA $180-$205 million.
eBay $0.70 vs street $0.67, guidance more or less in line with expectations
Garmin $0.55 vs street $0.43, sales $583M vs street $540M
Phillips 66 $1.47 vs street $1.35
Thomson Reuters $0.46 vs street $0.38
Loblaw $0.49 vs street $0.46,
Barrick Gold $0.08 vs street $0.17
Yamana Gold ($0.04) vs street $0.04
CGI Group $0.72 vs street $0.69
Methanex $1.65 vs street $1.90, 25% dividend increase
Economic reports released overnight and this morning include:
US ADP payrolls 220K vs street 210K last month revised up to 209K from 191K
US Q1 GDP 0.1% vs street 1.2% and previous 2.6%
US Q1 personal consumption 3.0% vs street 1.9%
US Q1 core PCE inflation 1.3% vs street 1.2%
US Q1 employment cost 0.3% vs street 0.5%
Canada Feb GDP 2.5% as expected
Canada industrial prices 0.4% vs street 0.5%
Canada raw material prices 0.6% vs street 1.0%
Germany unemployment chnge (25K) vs street (10K)
Germany unemployment rate 6.7% as expected
Germany retail sales (1.9%) vs street 1.7%
Japan manufacturing PMI 49.4 vs previous 53.9
Japan industrial production 7.0% vs street 7.2%
Bank of Japan decision no changes to QE or interest rates as expected
Japan vehicle production 14.0% vs previous 7.1%
Japan housing starts (2.9%) vs street (2.7%)
Japan construction orders (8.8%) vs previous 12.3%
Spain GDP 0.6% vs street 0.5% vs previous (0.2%)
Spain retail sales 0.6% vs previous (0.4%)
Spain consumer prices 0.4% as expected
Norway retail sales 1.0% vs street 0.0%
Norway unemployment rate 3.5% as expected
Italy unemployment rate 12.7% vs street 13.0%
Greece retail sales (2.2%) vs street (0.5%)
Eurozone consumer prices 0.7% vs street 0.8%
NZ building permits 8.3% vs street 2.0%
NZ activity outlook 52.5 vs previous 58.2
NZ business confidence 64.8 vs previous 67.3
Singapore unemployment rate 2.1% vs street 1.8%
Economic reports due later today include:
9:45 am EDT US Chicago PMI street 57.0 vs previous 55.9
10:30 am EDT US crude oil inventories street 1.7 mmbbls
10:30 am EDT US gasoline inventories street (0.7 mmbbls)
2:00 pm EDT US QE Pace $10B cut to $45B per month
2:00 pm EDT US interest rate 0.25% no change expected