Stocks in North America spend the day digesting Friday's selloff. Increased uncertainty related to the upcoming US election seemed to dominate thinking as there was little reaction to the news of the day.
Crude oil lost over 3% Monday as a technical correction intensified. A lack of progress in OPEC talks became the excuse for a takedown but that shouldn't have been a surprise considering the real meeting is still a month away.
Baker Hughes shares rallied on GE's takeover bid but then slumped downward. This provided more confirmation that indices are under distribution with investors feeding stock into news and going to the sidelines. This suggests growing concern that we could see an abrupt change in sentiment should Donald Trump win next week with recent polls suggesting momentum turning his way.
Today has the potential to be very active for Asia Pacific trading, particularly in Australia, China and Japan. Traders are expecting monthly Manufacturing PMI reports to be flat or improved. Commodity, housing and auto data are also due for Australia, New Zealand and Japan.
The main events today are the RBA and Bank of Japan meetings. The RBA is expected to hold rates steady. This is new Governor Lowe's second meeting so it will be interesting to see If he tries to put more of his own stamp on direction in the statement.
JPY and Japanese stocks could be active around today's Bank of Japan meeting. JPY has been underperforming other majors lately with the street speculating Governor may remain ultra-dovish relative to his peers. Any change to that could spark a move in the Yen.
Tomorrow brings more manufacturing PMI reports from the UK, US and elsewhere. CAD could be active on oil market action and also on the monthly GDP report with traders hoping for signs of acceleration.
There have been no major announcements after the close today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US personal income 0.3% vs street 0.4% vs previous 0.2%
US personal spending 0.5% vs street 0.4% vs previous 0.0%
US Chicago PMI 50.6 vs street 54.0
US Dallas Fed (1.5) vs street 2.0 vs previous (3.7)
Canada industrial prices 0.4% as expected vs previous (0.5%)
Canada raw material prices (0.1%) vs street 0.5% and previous (0.7%)
Germany retail sales 0.4% vs street 1.5%
Greece retail sales (3.1%) vs street 3.2%
Eurozone GDP 1.6% as expected
Eurozone consumer prices 0.5% as expected
Eurozone core CPI 0.8% as expected
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
10:00 am AEDT NZ QV house prices previous 14.3%
2:30 pm AEDT Australia RBA interest rate 1.50% no change expected
3:00 pm AEDTish Bank of Japan monetary policy
no change to interest rate or QE expected
4:00 pm AEDT Japan vehicle sales previous 3.7%
4:30 pm AEDT Australia commodity index previous 3.1%
8:30 am EDT Canada Aug GDP street 1.3%
11:45 am EDT Bank of Canada Poloz speaking
3:20 pm EDT Canada Morneau fall economic statement
Manufacturing PMI Reports:
12:00 pm AEDT China official manufacturing street 50.3
12:00 pm AEDT China official non-manufacturing previous 53.7
12:45 pm AEDT China Caixin manufacturing street 50.1
11:30 am AEDT Japan previous 51.7
9:30 am AEDT Australia previous 49.8
9:30 am GMT UK street 54.5 vs previous 55.4
8:00 am GMT Norway street 52.8
9:00 am GMT Greece street 49.9
9:30 am EDT Canada previous 50.3
9:45 am EDT US Markit street 53.2
10:00 am EDT US ISM PMI street 51.7
10:00 am EDT US ISM new orders previous 55.1
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