Given the strong gains seen already this week, and the absence of US markets for the 4th July Independence Day long weekend, it seems likely that we will probably see a fairly quiet end to what has been a very positive week
, with European markets set to open pretty much where they finished off yesterday.
All the early optimism surrounding this week’s US jobs reports turned out to be well founded with both jobs report posting strong numbers in June.
The three month average of job gains of 272k per month
over the course of Q2, compares very favourably to the Q1 average of 190k, while the unemployment rate dropped to 6.1%, inviting speculation of an above average GDP rebound for Q2.
Despite the obvious optimism that the US economy is recovering nicely and the obvious euphoria in the markets, some caution is warranted given that most of the jobs created were part time ones
, and while these jobs numbers are certainly positive, on their own they aren't convincing as evidence that the US consumer is ready to help push the US economy rebound strongly in Q2 and Q3.
Given that consumer and government health care spending amount to around 70% of GDP
, I would expect to see an up-tick in personal consumption rates, as well as retail sales growth and we're certainly not seeing much evidence of that in the Q2 numbers we've seen so far.
While US markets continued to break records European equities were a little more temperate
, though the German DAX
did manage to retake the 10,000 level bringing it back to just shy of its record highs in June.
Yesterday's inaction by the ECB hasn't really convinced markets that the central bank has the ability to commit to anything other than piecemeal moves, and while we got a little bit more clarity on the TLTRO's
the complexity of it became a little bewildering, though in essence the loans will be issued in two tranches of €400bn in September and December corresponding to 7%of their lending books excluding mortgages for four years.
Furthermore the money must be repaid after two years, if the banks don't meet their lending targets to businesses.
There isn't much in the way of economic data today with only German factory orders for May,
which are expected to decline 1%, and retail PMI's for June from France, Germany, Italy and the EU, which are expected to remain weak.
– the euro continued to slide yesterday briefly slipping below the 1.3600 level before rebounding. It would appear that we continue to trade in a range and while the highs this week at 1.3700 remain intact we could well slip back towards the 1.3520 area, where we have strong support.
– 1.7180 has capped the pound for now, but we remain on course for further gains towards 1.7330. 1.7330 is the 50% retracement of the decline from the 2007 highs at 2.1160 and the lows at 1.3500 in 2009. Only a move below 1.6910 support delays the scenario above.
– the euro continues to fall as we look to move towards 0.7880. We need to push through the 0.8035 area to stabilise and target 0.8085. The pressure remains on the downside while we remain below trend line resistance from the March highs sitting just below the 0.8090 level.
– we remain on course for a move towards Ichimoku cloud resistance at 102.50, and towards the range highs just below 103.00. Any weakness should find support around the 101.80 level.
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